Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Saudi inflation edged down for a second consecutive month in May, although it remained elevated due to the energy and water tariff hikes earlier in the year. Further ahead, with economic growth... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rates hiked as inflation jumps, currency pressures mount Today’s 100bp rate hike in Egyptian interest rates was larger than even our own above-consensus forecast and, with inflation likely to rise further in the coming months and the central bank willing to... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pressures on Saudi riyal should start to ease Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that Saudi Arabia will devalue the riyal. For our part, we have long argued that policymakers would be loath to abandon the dollar peg. And, as we explain in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker shows that, having spiked at the start of this year, capital outflows from the emerging world have fallen to almost zero over the past couple of months. 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs well placed to weather a Brexit vote A vote by the UK to leave the EU would likely cause ripples rather than shockwaves in the emerging world. Trade ties with the UK are too small to have a material impact on EM exporters. And while a... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor “Brexit” poses little risk to EM Trade South Africa’s April output figures suggest that, after a disastrous Q1, the economy improved a touch going into Q2. But the country will still struggle to avoid a technical recession. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) Egyptian inflation jumped to 12.3% y/y in May as the impact of March’s devaluation of the pound continued to feed through into price pressures, while a decision by the government to hike medicine... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Saudi Arabia’s “National Transformation Plan” Saudi Arabia’s “National Transformation Plan” represents a credible effort by the authorities to flesh out some of their policies as they look to overhaul the Kingdom’s economy over the coming years... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (May) PMIs from the Gulf picked up in May, but we suspect that this can be largely explained by a boost to sentiment on the back of the further recovery in oil prices. Meanwhile, the data provided further... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Few surprises expected at OPEC meeting This week’s OPEC meeting in Vienna is likely to pass without any major surprises. Policymakers should be a little happier heading into the meeting than they were at the previous one in December –... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equity markets stumble, despite oil rally Equity markets across the Gulf have struggled over the past month, in spite of a further recovery in oil prices. At the same time, speculation has increased that Saudi Arabia will devalue the riyal... 30th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth edges up for second consecutive month Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth picked up for the second consecutive month in March, suggesting that fears of an imminent collapse continue to be misplaced. The latest rise was broad-based but... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation prospects diverge as currency and oil price slumps unwind The unwinding effects of big exchange rate falls on import prices will continue to drive down inflation in a number of major EMs over the coming months. In those EMs that haven’t experienced a great... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: riyal devaluation a last resort In spite of the backdrop of the recent recovery in oil prices, which broke through US$50pb today for the first time this year, speculation has mounted that Saudi Arabia will devalue its currency. We... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s tourism sector stares into the abyss Egypt’s tourism sector has had a torrid time in recent months and last week’s crash of an EgyptAir plane has (although the cause is still unknown) reinforced security concerns. Overall, we think... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down last month, but it still remained elevated due to the energy and water tariff hikes earlier in the year, as well as the recent hike in tobacco import duties. These... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
