Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will economic pain prompt a shift in Saudi oil policy? The slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s economy has prompted the authorities to soften their opposition to a deal to freeze oil output. While a deal is more likely than it was earlier this year, there are... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Regional growth to stay subdued in 2017-18 The Middle East and North African economies have slowed sharply this year and growth is likely to be much weaker than the consensus expects in 2017-18. Growth in the Gulf will remain sluggish as the... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2016) Emerging market consumer spending growth appears to have bottomed out in recent quarters, but the subsequent recovery will be slow going. While the immediate outlook is brightest in Emerging Asia and... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM economies now less vulnerable to US rate hikes The sudden sell-off in EMs that started on Friday, triggered by hawkish comments from the head of the Boston Fed Eric Rosengreen, points to a turbulent period ahead for EM financial markets as the... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stumble, but recovery will continue We think that one-off disruptions explain most of the fall in EM exports in July. More timely data already suggest that EM export growth was stronger in August. 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world edged up to around $42bn in August from $38bn in July, but they remain well below their peak at the turn of the year. And inflows... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further sharp rise in Egyptian inflation, to 15.5% y/y in August, is likely to prompt the central bank to hike interest rates at its meeting later this month. With further subsidy cuts on the... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: revisiting the hit from lower oil prices Saudi Arabia’s upcoming Eurobond issuance has thrust the country’s finances back under the spotlight. Overall, the hit from lower oil prices has been significant – annual oil export revenues are down... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) The dip in Egypt’s PMI last month suggests that, while financial markets have welcomed the announcement of an IMF deal, business sentiment doesn’t appear to have received a boost. Meanwhile, PMIs from... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound could fall 25% if central bank loosens its grip We think the Egyptian pound could fall by as much as 25% against the US dollar, to 12.0/US$, by end-2017 if the authorities shift to a more flexible exchange rate as part of its prospective IMF deal. 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recovery resumes Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that, after a brief pause in May, the recovery in EM growth resumed in June. The latest improvement has been driven by a pick-up in activity in Emerging Asia and Latin... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Slump in Saudi economy deepens Our GDP Tracker suggests that the slump in Saudi Arabia’s economy has deepened, with output falling by more than 2% y/y in June. A recovery is likely to get underway over the rest of this year and in... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM food inflation to edge down, but it won’t collapse We expect food inflation in large parts of the EM world to ease in the coming months, which will provide some relief to policymakers in a number of high inflation economies, including Russia, Colombia... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Political tensions come to the fore Political tensions have re-emerged in a number of frontier market economies in recent weeks, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. The outcome of the recent presidential election in Zambia has... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi inflation edged down in July to its lowest rate this year, at 3.8% y/y, and further ahead the weakness of economic activity means that headline inflation will fall further over the next twelve... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE set to embark on gradual recovery The UAE’s economy is likely to record its slowest growth since 2010 this year, but the country’s strong balance sheet means that it should embark on a recovery in 2017-18. Indeed, we expect it to be... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
