Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) The drop in PMIs from the Gulf last month will raise concerns that the worst of the economic slowdown may not yet have passed. Meanwhile, the PMIs brought further evidence that Egypt’s economy is... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continued in Q3 The EM manufacturing PMIs for September suggest that industry across the emerging world performed better in Q3 than in Q2. That said, the index remains consistent with relatively weak growth in... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Strong Saudi Q2 GDP data could be revised down The 1.4% y/y Q2 GDP growth in Saudi Arabia reported by the local statistics authority was significantly stronger than we had expected. But we find this difficult to square with the weaker low-profile... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A temporary pause in the EM recovery Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that, after accelerating for most of this year, EM growth was unchanged in July. We think that this pause in the EM recovery should prove to be temporary and we continue to... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor China still towards the top of EM worry list Our CERI suggests that financial risks for the average EM are the lowest in over 20 years. Even so, there are pockets of vulnerability. The CERI is flashing warning signs in Egypt, Colombia, Venezuela... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: first thoughts on the implications of the OPEC deal Last night’s OPEC deal to cut output is short on details, although our sense is that it’s unlikely to be a game-changer for Saudi Arabia, even if it shoulders most of the burden of the fall in... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC deal not a game-changer for oil markets Last night’s surprise OPEC announcement that it will limit output caused prices to surge. But the lack of details, OPEC’s poor record of compliance with its own quotas and the potential for shale... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM-wide inflation drops to seven-year low EM inflation is now at a seven-year low. Looking ahead, it is set to ease further in most major commodity producing EMs over the coming months, providing central banks with room to cut interest rates. 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian dollar bonds perform well as IMF deal edges closer Yields on Egyptian dollar bonds have edged down over the past month as the government has moved closer to securing an IMF deal. One of the likely lending conditions, however, is that the authorities... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.) The sharp fall in Saudi inflation in August was driven by a drop in food inflation, although there were signs that the weakness of the economy is curtailing underlying price pressures. We expect... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt keeps rates unchanged, but large hikes lie ahead The decision by Egypt’s central bank to keep its key interest unchanged at 11.75% today, despite the recent sharp rise in inflation, suggests that large rate hikes are only likely once an IMF deal is... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia likely to stick with fiscal austerity There have been signs in recent weeks that the sharp slowdown in the Saudi economy caused by fiscal austerity may have prompted the authorities to look at alternative solutions to deal with the... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks remain in easing mode Emerging market policymakers have been in loosening mode in recent months, with our EM interest rate diffusion index showing that more EM central banks cut rates than hiked again in August. Rate cuts... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers turn to international bond markets An increasing number of frontier markets are turning to the international bond markets as they look to paper over the cracks in their finances. Argentina got the ball rolling earlier this year when it... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A look ahead to Saudi Arabia’s international bond issuance Saudi Arabia’s upcoming international bond sale has sparked a lot of investor interest and we estimate that the Kingdom will manage to sell its 10-year debt for a relatively low yield of 3.50-3.75%... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight fiscal policy to stifle recoveries in commodity producers The majority of governments in commodity-producing EMs are still in the process of adjusting to the new reality of lower commodity prices and are being forced to cut spending. Accordingly, while... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
