Global Markets Update Have EM currency investors forgotten about the Fed? Emerging market (EM) currencies have decoupled from broader movements in the US dollar in recent months despite a growing sense that the Fed will hike rates again before year-end. A realisation that... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the latest jump in EM “junk” bonds sustainable? The rally in emerging market (EM) “junk” bonds has continued unabated in recent days, but we think that this year’s strong gains may soon go into reverse. That alone would probably be enough to cause... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi inflation dropped to its lowest rate this year in September as food prices fell at a steeper pace and the effect of administered price hikes earlier this year continued to fade. We expect... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports recover as commodity prices stabilise South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell dramatically last month. The sharp fall in the measure of future conditions suggests that hopes of a swift improvement in the country’s economic and political... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi banks should continue to weather economic headwinds Banks in Saudi Arabia have coped well so far with the fallout from lower oil prices and we think the sector is in a strong position to confront the ongoing economic headwinds over the coming years. 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Saudi Arabia’s international bond sale Saudi Arabia’s record-breaking US$17.5bn sale of international bonds will finance around a third of next year’s budget deficit and almost all of the current account shortfall, so the Kingdom’s foreign... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia to ease pace of austerity in 2017-18 Saudi Arabia’s upcoming international bond issuance and the recent OPEC agreement have put the spotlight back on to the country’s adjustment to low oil prices. One point that is often overlooked is... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM foreign currency debt sales Sovereign foreign currency bond sales by emerging markets could top $100bn this year although, outside a couple of vulnerable countries, it seems unlikely that these will cause future debt problems. 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world eased a little last month, and they remain well below the levels seen earlier in the year. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The end of the Golden Age Widespread expectations for a sustained rebound in emerging market growth after the slowdown of recent years will be disappointed. The 2000s were a transient “Golden Age” for the emerging world, with... 13th October 2016 · 20 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC production ramps up as Nigeria and Libya return OPEC production rose in September as Libya and Nigeria ramped up exports. Saudi Arabia’s output did fall, but this is likely to be a seasonal effect rather than a policy shift. 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Rise in Saudi interest rates has further to go Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Political risks hit Mexican peso and South African rand The Mexican peso and South African rand have been buffetted by political developments in recent weeks, as Donald Trump continued to take aim at Mexico and South Africa’s Finance Minister was charged... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stabilises Saudi Arabia’s economy didn’t perform as badly as we had feared in Q2 and our GDP Tracker suggests that things have stabilised at the start of Q3. That said, more timely data and recent policy... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) Egyptian inflation dipped to 14.1% y/y in September, but this is unlikely to mark the start of a downward trend. Policymakers are edging to closer to an IMF deal, so a fresh devaluation of the pound... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Recovery to grind on Economies across the emerging world have strengthened so far this year and we expect further improvements in the months ahead. But growth is likely to peak in 2017 at rates far below the averages of... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
