Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi gigaproject dilemma, Ras el-Hekma boost, Tunisia

Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week add to the evidence that spending on gigaprojects may be curtailed. But his comments pinning this on concerns about...

16th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Can Egypt take advantage of a weak pound?

Egypt’s shift back toward economic orthodoxy will result in near-term economic pain, but it could also pave the way for faster economic growth over a longer horizon. Part of that will rest on Egypt...

15th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 1.6% y/y in April and, while we think that there may be a slight acceleration at the start of Q3, the bigger picture is that inflation in the...

15th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Kuwait: déjà vu or the start of something new?

The dissolution of Kuwait’s parliament for the fourth time in two years highlights political infighting that has held back the economy for years. While much remains uncertain, there is now a clear...

13th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2024)

Capital flows into EM bonds and equities have fallen to their lowest in six months as investors have pared back expectations for Fed interest rate cuts. However, even with these moves, we remain more...

13th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel: excess savings an upside growth and inflation risk

Private sector savings surged in Israel during the pandemic and jumped again last year amid the war in Gaza. We estimate that those built up due to the war are equivalent to around 3.0% of GDP and...

9th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE ups the ante with OPEC, review of April’s PMIs

The UAE has raised its oil production capacity even further in a sign that it wants to raise actual output. But with rumours growing that OPEC+ may extend its current low oil output quotas beyond June...

9th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Stubborn services inflation could slow rate cuts further

The persistent strength in core services inflation in some EMs outside Asia raises the chances that central banks cut interest rates by less than the consensus expects this year, not least because it...

9th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 33.3% y/y in March to 32.5% y/y in April and we think that inflation will continue to ease over the rest of this year and into 2025. That said, while...

9th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia can stick with its loose fiscal stance (for now)

Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widened further at the start of this year and, for now at least, the government seems comfortable with maintaining the loose fiscal stance and issuing more debt. If oil...

7th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing still going strong

The EM manufacturing PMI for April showed that industry continued its strong start to the year through to the beginning of Q2. At a regional level, the narrative was largely unchanged: India remains...

2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi-US relations, NEOM financing, Morocco and the IMF

Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia and the US are close to reaching a new security pact which, if confirmed, could swing the Kingdom back towards the US's orbit. Meanwhile, Saudi’s flagship gigaproject...

2nd May 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1 2024, Flash Estimate)

Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of GDP showed that the economy exited recession in Q1 and we expect the recovery to continue over the course of the year – and be a bit stronger than most currently...

1st May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2024)

Higher US bond yields and a stronger dollar have put some EM currencies under pressure this year, but external vulnerabilities have eased in most EMs which should limit adverse spillovers. Indeed, our...

30th April 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

What Trump’s return would mean for EMs

All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal...

29th April 2024 · 13 mins read