Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to look out for in Saudi Arabia’s 2017 budget Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister, Mohammed al-Jadaan, will deliver his maiden budget later this month, which is likely to reinforce the government’s commitment to tighter fiscal policy in order to... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) Saudi inflation fell to 2.3% y/y in November, its lowest rate this year. We expect inflation to settle at 2.0-2.5% in 2017, compared with an average of around 3.5% this year, which should support a... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf financial markets find support from higher oil prices The rise in oil prices following the recent OPEC deal to cut output has supported financial markets across the Gulf over the past month. Stock markets have perked up and spreads of dollar bonds over... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Reasons to remain sceptical of “major shift” in Saudi oil policy The recent agreement reached by OPEC and other oil producers to cut output has prompted speculation of a major shift in Saudi Arabia’s oil policy, but we remain cautious. After all, the Kingdom has... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Fed tightening unlikely to cause major problems for EMs Our proprietary indicator of EM financial risk remains close to a 13-year low, which should help to reassure anyone concerned about a spate of crises across the emerging world in 2017. In particular... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook On course for weakest growth since the global financial crisis The Middle East & North Africa region will struggle again next year, recording its weakest economic growth since the global financial crisis in 2009. Fiscal policy will have to be tightened in most... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) Egyptian inflation surged to 19.4% y/y in November following the float and subsequent 50% drop in the pound against the US dollar, as well as fresh subsidy cuts. Inflation looks set to rise even... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy holds steady in Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy stabilised in Q3 and was on an improving trend towards the end of the quarter, supported by stronger growth in the oil sector. 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2017 Far from being the catastrophe that many had expected 2016 was – as we anticipated – a year of stabilisation and recovery for many emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) The small drop in Egypt’s PMI last month suggests that the economy hasn’t deteriorated significantly following the pound’s float and subsequent 50% fall against the US dollar. But with inflation set... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI remains near two-year high The EM manufacturing PMI edged down in November, but still suggests that conditions in manufacturing sectors are much healthier than a few months ago. Emerging Europe, in particular, appears to have... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers will continue to ease Inflation in most commodity-producing EMs will continue to edge down over the coming months as the effects of previous currency falls unwind. This will allow policymakers in almost all of these... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi interbank rates edge lower, but will rise again soon Interbank interest rates in Saudi Arabia have edged down over the past month as investor sentiment towards the Kingdom has improved and policy moves have helped to ease liquidity constraints at banks... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery grinds on Our GDP Tracker suggests that the EM recovery has continued in recent months, driven in large part by a strong rebound in China’s economy. This has a bit further to run but we think the recovery will... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations still favour EM equities over US$ bonds Yields of emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated bonds have risen since the US elections, but are still generally lower than the forward earnings yields of equities. This is one reason why we believe... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
