Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Decline in Saudi interbank rates to reverse course soon The recent decline in Saudi interbank rates reflects fading fears that the riyal will be devalued and easing liquidity shortages in the banking system. We still expect Saudi interbank rates to rise... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Investors give Egypt the thumbs up Egypt’s recent economic reforms received a warm welcome from investors earlier this month, as the country successfully issued US$4bn of international bonds. The sale was almost double the amount that... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: will the government’s fiscal reforms be enough? The big fiscal squeeze that the Egyptian government has signed up for as part of its IMF deal will, if fully implemented, bring the debt ratio down. However, the authorities are likely to struggle to... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA sovereigns line up dollar bond sales The recent pull-back in US Treasury yields has prompted several MENA sovereigns to push ahead with their plans to issue dollar debt. With the Fed likely to hike interest rates more aggressively in... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi inflation fell further at the end of last year as the decline in food prices steepened. Inflation is likely to ease a little further in the first few months of 2017, but fresh subsidy cuts will... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy picking up at end of 2016, but set to slow in 2017 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy was on an improving trends towards the end of last year. But we expect growth to be slower this year compared with 2016 as weakness in the oil sector... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Key takeaways from the IMF’s Staff Report on Egypt The conditions attached to Egypt’s IMF loan, details of which were released earlier today, suggest that a significant fiscal squeeze is in the pipeline this year, while monetary policy will remain... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi balance of payments position to continue to improve The latest data show that Saudi Arabia’s balance of payments position improved markedly towards the end of 2016 and, with oil prices likely to grind higher this year, this trend looks set to continue... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Gulf’s currency pegs withstand a stronger dollar? The appreciation of the US dollar since the end of last year has prompted renewed concerns over the sustainability of currency pegs in the Gulf, but we think these fears are overdone. Oil prices are... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation has further to rise Yesterday’s inflation data from Egypt made for grim reading and we think the headline rate is likely to peak at around 27% in the coming months, prompting further interest rate hikes. Price pressures... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) The 50% drop in the pound against the US dollar and fresh subsidy cuts pushed Egyptian inflation up further last month to its second-highest rate in a quarter of a century. With inflation likely to... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth to slow as weaker oil sector offsets non-oil recovery Saudi Arabia’s economy is likely to grow at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis this year. However, this will largely reflect weakness in the oil sector. In contrast, with austerity... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Equities to find some comfort from low valuations Emerging market (EM) equities face a tricky year, as the Fed tightens policy, Donald Trump takes office and geo-political risks blot the outlook. But while these factors probably rule out a repeat of... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Unpacking “political risk” in EMs The tendency to bracket all EM political risk under the banner of “rising populism” conceals important nuances and prevents a proper understanding of the economic consequences of the risks that are... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi austerity to resume in 2018, but won’t be as harsh as 2015-16 Saudi Arabia’s recent budget suggested that fiscal consolidation will take a breather this year and, while the “Fiscal Balance Program” points to austerity resuming from 2018, it is likely to be less... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) December’s batch of PMI data suggest that the Gulf economies ended 2016 on a brighter note, supported by a boost sentiment from higher oil prices and signs that the worst of the drag from fiscal... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
