Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM stragglers start to pick up speed There has been a sharp turnaround in EM growth in recent months and we expect growth in several major economies, including Brazil and Russia, to surprise on the upside over the next year or so. But... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.) March’s PMI data show that the recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors continued at the end of Q1. There’s little sign that the fall in oil prices last month has hit sentiment. Meanwhile, the surveys... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf markets give mixed response to oil price dip The recent dip in oil prices has prompted the usual drop in equity markets across the Gulf, but bond markets have fared better. In fact, spreads on the region’s dollar bond have actually narrowed over... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Recent dip in oil prices not a major concern for the Gulf The recent drop in oil prices, from around US$56pb at the start of March to just over US$51pb at present, is unlikely to be a major cause for alarm in the Gulf. For one thing, oil prices are still... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf growth to be trimmed by oil output cuts Headline GDP growth in the Gulf looks is likely to slow to an eight-year low of 1.5% in 2017. However, this will be entirely the result of oil production cuts as countries comply with last year’s OPEC... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stronger in Q4, consensus too bearish on 2017 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy strengthened in the final quarter of 2016 as the drag from fiscal austerity eased. Headline GDP growth is likely to slow sharply in the first half of... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) February’s batch of PMI data suggests that the Gulf’s non-oil sectors have continued to strengthen, supporting our view that growth may be a little stronger than most expect this year. 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Steady stream of Gulf dollar bond sales continues Oman and, for the first time, Kuwait are expected to sell dollar bonds in the coming weeks, continuing the raft of issuances from the Gulf countries over the past year. Kuwait’s strong balance sheet... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Signs of improvement in frontier economies The recent improvement in the global economic backdrop has been mirrored by a pick-up in growth across frontier markets. National accounts data released by early-reporting frontiers over the past... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s economy set for a slow recovery in 2017-18 Tunisia’s economy picked up over the course of 2016 and, while growth is likely to strengthen a little further over the next couple of years, we expect it to remain sluggish at 2-3%. 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf’s non-oil sectors show signs of recovery The latest activity data suggest that non-oil sectors in the two largest Gulf economies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are starting to recover from their slumps in early 2016. Both countries have been... 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s credit boom comes to an end, lending growth to stay weak The recent sharp slowdown in private sector credit growth, coupled with falling real estate prices, has ignited concerns that Qatar’s credit boom of the past few years is quickly unravelling. For now... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) January’s batch of PMI data suggests that the Gulf’s non-oil sectors have continued to strengthen. Meanwhile, amid high inflation and a big fiscal squeeze, Egypt’s economy is still struggling. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Moroccan dirham to rise once central bank loosens its grip The spotlight in the region’s currency markets over the past couple of years has been on the threat of large devaluations but, as we explain in this Focus, the risks in Morocco appear to lie in the... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran now in Trump’s sights An early morning tweet from President Trump suggests that his attention may now shift to Iran and its infamous nuclear deal. In this Update, we explain what has happened, the chances of the deal being... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of life in Brazil and Russia Our GDP Tracker suggests that the EM GDP growth has continued to accelerate in recent months and is now running at its fastest pace in two years. While the recovery is still being driven by China... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
