Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Vision 2030 likely to fall short of lofty goals The recent elevation of Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman to crown prince has raised hopes of a renewed impetus to push through his Vision 2030 reform programme. But, while the scope of the programme... 27th June 2017 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain and Oman: the Gulf’s weak spots Recent comments from the IMF and ratings agencies have put the focus back on the weak balance sheets of the Gulf’s two smallest economies, Bahrain and Oman. We have warned for some time that both... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears over Qatar’s dollar peg misplaced The diplomatic spat between Qatar and its neighbours has sparked fears that it may be forced to devalue the riyal, but we think this is highly unlikely. In particular, the country’s strong balance... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (May) May’s PMI data suggests that recoveries in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors have lost a bit of momentum, but we don’t think this marks the start of a sharp downturn. Elsewhere, the PMIs brought further... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA equity markets continue to underperform Stock markets across the Middle East and North Africa have struggled over the past month, continuing their relative underperformance since the start of the year. This largely reflects weakness in Gulf... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack OPEC deal renewed, but Saudi nods towards “exit strategy” OPEC’s decision this month to roll over its oil output cuts displayed a rare sense of cohesion from the cartel, but there are signs that de-facto leader Saudi Arabia is seeking an eventual end to... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf likely to push back against calls for deeper oil output cuts This month’s dip in oil prices means that it is almost certain OPEC will agree to an extension to its oil output cuts into the second half of this year. But we think Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation last month, to 31.5% y/y, was driven entirely by stronger food price pressures. We think inflation is now close to a peak and today’s figures are unlikely to... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf economies better placed to deal with low oil prices The recent fall in oil prices has reignited fears over the outlook for the Gulf, but as we explain in this Watch these countries are in a better position now to weather a period of low oil prices than... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Apr.) April’s PMI data suggest that non-oil sectors in the Gulf have continued to recover from last year’s austerity-led slump. Elsewhere, the PMIs brought further evidence that Egypt is feeling the... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Devaluation fears fade in the Gulf, Tunisia’s dinar falls Fears that low oil prices would force the Gulf countries to devalue their currencies have continued to fade over the past month. However, one country in the region where the authorities have loosened... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation remains close to eight-year low EM inflation remained at close to an eight-year low last month, driven in large part by weakening price pressures in the BRIC economies. Inflation has been on the rise in most other EMs, although not... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia hints at OPEC deal extension Recent comments from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister, Khalid al-Falih, suggest that OPEC is edging towards an agreement to extend its oil production cuts when it meets in Vienna next month. Having ruled... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf: improving budget positions to allow austerity to ease Budget positions across the Gulf should improve over the next couple of years – and many will return to surplus – supported in large part by higher oil prices. As a result, governments across the... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does the US strike on Syria mean for commodities? The potential for further escalation of the conflict in Syria has boosted the prices of oil and gold today. But taking a step back, OPEC supply cuts and growth in demand should be the main drivers of... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How big is the threat of deflation in the Gulf? The recent dip in Saudi inflation into negative territory following a period of weak growth has raised broader concerns about the threat of deflation in the Gulf. Our core inflation measures for the... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
