Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Narrowing of Gulf interbank spreads has gone too far The spread of interbank interest rates in the Gulf over those in the US has narrowed to its lowest level since 2008. While we correctly argued in 2016 that spreads would begin to narrow, we think that... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Region to mount a recovery Growth in the Middle East and North Africa slowed to its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in 2017, but the region is set for a recovery over the next twelve months. The rebound in growth... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf: higher oil prices prompt shift away from austerity The recent rally in oil prices has led governments in the Gulf to move away from the harsh austerity of recent years. Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia announced a raft of bonuses for public sector... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Moroccan dirham to avoid fate of Egyptian pound The announcement on Friday by Morocco’s central bank that it will move to a more flexible exchange rate regime has raised concerns that the dirham will follow the path of currencies in the rest of... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi households to be a weak spot in 2018 The Saudi government looks set to loosen fiscal policy this year which should support a pick-up in economic growth. However, as we explain in this Watch, households won’t be net beneficiaries from... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi bonuses to lift growth but raise fears over reform The announcement in Saudi Arabia over the weekend that the government will pay bonuses to civil servants and military personnel means that fiscal policy will be slightly looser this year than had been... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) December’s PMI data suggest that non-oil sectors in the Gulf ended last year on a fairly strong note. And while Egypt’s PMI slipped back last month the survey showed that price pressures there have... 4th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to be larger than most expect Further sharp falls in Egyptian inflation in the coming months are likely to prompt the central bank to embark on a monetary easing cycle. We expect the benchmark interest rate to be cut to 13.25% by... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the protests in Iran If the recent protests in Iran rumble on or even spread, the resulting disruptions to activity are likely to weigh on the country’s economy but the fallout for the rest of the MENA economies, as well... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dollar peg fears ease, but Lebanon remains vulnerable The easing of political tensions in the region in recent weeks has reduced concerns about the sustainability of dollar pegs, supporting our view that fears of devaluations in the Gulf looked misplaced... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2018 budget unveils modest fiscal loosening The Saudi budget released this afternoon showed that the government has already started to loosen fiscal policy and will continue to do so in 2018. This is a more accommodative stance than we had... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Daesh downfall offers respite for smaller economies Political commentary in the region has focussed on the recent upheaval in Saudi Arabia, but one development that has received little attention is the downfall of the militant group, Islamic State (IS... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to look out for in Saudi Arabia’s 2018 budget The recent rise in oil prices has raised some hopes that Saudi Arabia’s 2018 budget – to be announced next week – will unveil a shift towards looser fiscal policy to support the economy. However, we... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi politics emerges as key economic risk Saudi politics has been a staid affair for decades, but Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s launch of an anti-corruption crackdown and his ratcheting up of tensions with Iran herald a period of greater... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation in November primarily reflected the unwinding of the impact of last year’s depreciation of the pound and paves the way for the central bank to cut interest rates... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Five key questions on the Saudi Aramco privatisation The recent political upheaval in Saudi Arabia has cast fresh doubts over the government’s plans to sell a stake in the state-owned oil company, Aramco. Fears that the sale will be scrapped altogether... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
