Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain gets Gulf support, new gas discovery in Egypt? The announcement on Wednesday that Bahrain is in talks with the other Gulf countries over financial support reinforces our view that, despite recent worries in the markets, its dollar peg won’t be... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf: the economic impact of the revised OPEC deal Revisions to OPEC’s oil output agreement will lead to a rise in supplies from the Gulf over the coming months, providing a direct boost to economic growth. Higher production will, however, depress oil... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt subsidy cuts, Saudi upgrade, OPEC meeting Hikes to fuel prices announced by the Egyptian government over the past week mean that the central bank will refrain lowering interest rates at its upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, growing tensions within... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would a rise in OPEC output mean for Saudi? The OPEC meeting scheduled to start on Friday will probably result in a compromise to increase oil output and this could provide a boost to Saudi GDP growth of around 1%-pt. Frictions within the group... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack UAE the latest to loosen fiscal policy The past month has brought further signs that governments across the Gulf are responding to higher oil prices by ramping up spending. Both Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the two largest emirates that make up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Qatar: A year on from the blockade One year after the diplomatic crisis surrounding Qatar first erupted, the economy appears to have weathered the storm. An escalation of the crisis remains the key threat to the economic outlook, but... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (May) Last month’s PMI data for the Gulf suggest that after a soft start to the year, growth in the non-oil sector is picking up. Egypt’s PMI suggests that pipeline price pressures are subdued, supporting... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Should we worry about rising GCC public debt? Government debt across the Gulf has risen sharply over the past few years, but only in the smaller countries of Bahrain and Oman do we consider it to be a major source of concern. Financial support... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will rising oil prices trigger fiscal loosening in the Gulf? The recent rally in oil prices has already prompted governments across the Gulf to shift away from the harsh austerity of recent years. But long-term oil price expectations are still low and the... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Markets tumble with Iran’s nuclear deal on the brink Financial markets in the Middle East & North Africa have underperformed those in the rest of the emerging world over the past week following President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update What to make of the US sanctions on Iran The re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran is unlikely to have a major impact on global oil supply. However, geopolitical tensions have intensified and if Iran decides to pull out of the nuclear deal... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Trump and Iran’s nuclear deal: assessing the impact President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the nuclear deal with Iran is likely to prompt a fresh downturn in Iran’s economy but, as things stand, the economic impact on the rest of the MENA... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Apr.) Last month’s PMI data showed that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to weaken as a result of austerity measures introduced at the start of this year, but we think that this slowdown will be temporary... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Three key risks to commodity prices In this Commodities Watch, we take stock of three of the most serious geopolitical risks that have emerged over the past few months. These are the prospect of a trade war between the US and China, US... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rise in MENA dollar bond yields has further to go Dollar bond yields have risen across the MENA region over the past month and we think this process has further to run. Underlying US Treasury yields look set to creep up as the Fed raises interest... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Lebanon’s central bank putting the dollar peg at risk? The Lebanese authorities have suggested that they will soon undertake another “financial engineering” exercise in an effort to boost the central banks’ FX reserves and reduce the government’s debt... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
