Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Morocco’s EVs to fuel auto boom, Aramco issuance

The EU’s tariffs on EV imports from China may encourage Chinese firms to raise investments into Morocco, whose auto sector is growing rapidly on the back of expansion plans from both Chinese and...

13th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2024)

Net capital inflows into EMs have climbed back into positive territory in recent weeks, driven by a sharp rise in foreign investors’ purchases of Turkish government debt. This strength could continue...

11th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (May 2024)

Egypt’s headline inflation dropped back from 32.5% y/y in April to 28.1% y/y, the lowest outturn since the start of 2023. Inflation is likely to rise again in June and July due to government price...

10th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE exceptionalism, Egypt reshuffle, Saudi mortgages

The decision by OPEC+ to roll over oil production cuts until October will reduce economic growth in the Gulf this year, but the UAE has emerged a clear winner. Higher oil output there will lead to a...

6th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM growth robust in Q1 but disparities persist

Aggregate EM GDP growth remained strong in Q1, though we still expect a slowdown later this year. At a regional level, Emerging Asia will lead the pack, however there are tentative signs that...

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Middle East & North Africa PMIs (May ‘24)

May’s batch of PMIs showed that private non-oil sectors have remained a point of strength in the Gulf economies at the mid-point of Q2 and this is likely to remain the case over the rest of this year...

4th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing performance strong but uneven

The EM manufacturing PMI remained at a three-year high in May but the picture is becoming increasingly nuanced at a country level. Meanwhile, the PMIs also showed price pressures rose again last month...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

OPEC+ decision to keep a lid on Gulf economies’ growth

The decision by OPEC+ to keep oil production lower over the rest of this year means that oil sectors in the Gulf will grow more slowly than we had previously anticipated and we have revised down our...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Reading the OPEC+ tea leaves: rollover is on the cards

The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ set for crunch talks and Egypt’s fiscal reforms

This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting could be a stick or twist moment with markets increasingly believing the group will roll over its quotas and voluntary cuts again. If quotas are extended, that risks...

30th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May 2024)

Low oil output in the Gulf has constrained economic growth so far this year and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting will prove pivotal to the outlook over the rest of this year. Elsewhere in Middle East and...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read

Frontier Markets Wrap

Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low?

The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and...

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi-US pact nears, MENA bond issuances, Iran election

Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are nearing to a grand deal on security and the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear program would, if confirmed, swing the Kingdom back towards the US’s sphere of influence...

23rd May 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi GDP growth will hinge on OPEC+ decision

After exiting recession in Q1, Saudi Arabia’s economy should continue to expand over the rest of this year on the back of strong private non-oil growth and higher oil output. But next month’s OPEC...

22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Iran’s succession plans unlikely to fix economic woes

The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi yesterday creates greater uncertainty over the succession planning for the next Supreme Leader. But, taking a step back, the balance of political power...

20th May 2024 · 4 mins read