Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi markets not out of the woods, oil prices drop The rally in Saudi Arabia’s stock market today has partially reversed the losses suffered since Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance hit the headlines. But the threat of sanctions, coupled with falling oil... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Region set for a temporary rebound The recovery in the Middle East and North Africa will gather pace over the rest of this year and in early 2019, but growth will peak sooner than most expect. Egypt’s cyclical upturn should continue... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Khashoggi scandal, Saudi fiscal slippage, Egypt tourism Saudi Arabia might be patching together a face-saving statement over the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khasoggi, but the affair will damage the country’s long-term economic prospects and another... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Valuations don’t point to rebound in EM currencies Even though emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen a long way against the US dollar in recent months, in most cases their valuations do not yet appear particularly low. This pours cold water on... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Missing Saudi journalist makes politics key economic risk The disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul raises fresh questions about Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s reputation as a reformer and political developments pose a growing... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf’s recovery to peak in mid-2019 The Gulf’s economic recovery looks set to gather pace over the coming quarters and growth is likely to be stronger than most expect. But the recovery will probably peak in the middle of next year and... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Weathering the storm? Economic growth has held up far better than financial markets in the emerging world over the past few months. But while some countries will continue to do well, EM growth in aggregate is now slowing... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi lifts oil output, Egypt’s external pressures easing Reports that Saudi Arabia will ramp up oil output over the coming months support our view that GDP growth will be stronger than most expect over the rest of this year and in the first half of 2019... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) Last month’s PMI data paint a mixed picture in the Gulf but we expect growth in non-oil sectors to pick up over the coming months on the back of fiscal stimulus. Elsewhere, the survey in Egypt... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of higher oil prices We don’t expect the recent jump in oil prices to be sustained but if we are wrong and prices stay at $85pb, annual export revenues in the Gulf would be $200bn higher than in 2017. Governments would... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf to enter EMBI, another Egyptian dollar debt sale? JP Morgan’s announcement that it will include five GCC economies in its EMBI dollar bond indices should provide a further fillip to foreign investment in the region’s financial markets. Even so, we... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon fears escalate, Saudi happy with $80pb oil The sharp widening in Lebanese dollar bond spreads this week suggests that investors are increasingly fearful that the country is lurching towards an economic crisis and, in the event of a fresh... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Weak balance sheets come under the spotlight Balance sheets in the largest MENA economies have received a lot of attention over the past couple of years, but more recently there has been increasing scrutiny of those in some of the region’s... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update We still expect the oil price to fall We think that the worst fears over supply will not be realised and that slower growth in global demand will prompt a significant fall in the oil price in 2019. However, logistical constraints on US... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation, Saudi construction, Jordan tax plan August’s rise in Egyptian inflation means that the central bank will probably leave interest rates on hold at this month’s MPC meeting. But signs that core price pressures have eased means that it won... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (August) The latest data show that Saudi Arabia still has sufficient spare capacity to increase production if it needed to offset falls in output in Iran and Venezuela. Slower growth in demand and higher... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
