Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi likely to push ahead with modest oil output cut The upcoming OPEC meeting is likely to result in Saudi Arabia agreeing to reduce its oil output. But we think that any cut will be at the more modest end of the spectrum as the authorities balance the... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Can the Gulf economies weather the slump in oil prices? The latest slump in oil prices is unlikely to lead to major balance sheet strains in the largest Gulf economies and, even if prices fall further to $40-50pb, dollar pegs shouldn’t come under threat... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Drop in oil prices unlikely to stop EM tightening The fall in oil prices over the past couple of months will drag down fuel inflation across the emerging world, but it probably won’t be enough to prompt policymakers to slow the pace of monetary... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf markets under pressure as oil slumps The recent plunge in oil prices is unlikely to cause major economic ructions in the Gulf, but it has taken a toll on local financial markets. Brent crude has plunged from $85pb at the start of October... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth holding up in early Q4, but set to slow The very early evidence suggests that EM GDP growth steadied at the start of Q4, as stronger export growth offset a slowdown in consumption. But activity is likely to weaken over the course of 2019. 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slumps, more political twists in Tunisia and Lebanon The drop in oil prices over the past week probably has further to run, which is a key reason why we think that the economic recovery in the Gulf will peak in the middle of 2019 and perhaps even sooner... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM Exports: Stable for now, but headed for a slowdown EM export growth remained strong in September, and probably picked up in October. But we think that a combination of escalating tariffs, lower commodity prices, and weaker economic growth in developed... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our Tracker suggests that, in net terms, capital outflows from the emerging world picked up to about $100bn in the three months to October, the largest since “Trumpflation” in early 2017. But the pace... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC to talk output cuts, Tunisia rates, Egypt’s wage bill Rumours suggest that OPEC will discuss the possibility of oil output cuts this weekend, although a decision seems highly unlikely at this stage. But if oil prices fall further, as we expect... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs’ current accounts still a point of concern? The large current account deficits in Turkey and Argentina that precipitated currency crises this year are now narrowing and external positions are in decent shape in most major EMs. But there are a... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will stronger growth in the Gulf boost the rest of MENA? We expect that growth will strengthen in the Gulf over the coming quarters, but any potential boost to the rest of the MENA region is likely to be modest. While remittance flows might pick up, trade... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Financial conditions tightening in several EMs Strains in the balance of payments of some EMs last quarter seem to have been driven mainly by a decline in flows to bond markets. These flows now seem to have stabilised, but financial conditions... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) October’s PMI data suggest that the fallout from the murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, including the threat of sanctions by the US, has had no discernible impact on Saudi Arabia’s economy... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRICs drive uptick in EM manufacturing in Q4 The run of consecutive declines in the EM manufacturing PMI came to an end at the start of this quarter, thanks to an improvement in the surveys across the BRIC economies. Moreover, the breakdown of... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi loosens fiscal policy, Tunisia reforms face delay Data released this week confirmed that higher oil prices have prompted Saudi Arabia’s government to loosen fiscal policy further and we expect this to continue over the next few quarters, boosting... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Political risks back on the radar Political developments have re-emerged as a key risk to the region’s economic outlook in recent weeks. The economic fallout for Saudi Arabia from the Khashoggi scandal should be limited, at least in... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
