Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Ending 2018 on a weaker footing EM growth has slowed over the course of 2018 and our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate growth fell to its weakest pace in two years in Q4, at around 4.0%. 2019 is unlikely to be better. We expect... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2019 We think 2019 is likely to be a year in which EM growth slows, and by more than most expect, while asset prices fall. In this Focus, we outline our key calls for next year. 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC cuts, Qatari Emir shuns GCC, Oman dollar bonds The OPEC meeting concluded last Friday with a deal to cut oil output but we don’t think that this will provide a lasting boost to oil prices and, overall, the deal is set to result in slower GDP... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker suggests that, in Q4, capital outflows from EMs are on course to be the largest since “Trumpflation” in early 2017. But the pace of outflows did at least ease a little in November. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the OPEC deal mean for EM oil producers? The agreement between OPEC and other major oil producers to cut oil production is likely to act as a headwind to growth across EM oil producers next year. The Gulf economies will suffer the biggest... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Why earnings are likely to weigh on EM equities Despite the fact that it has already fallen a long way, we think that the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index will drop by another 10-15% by the end of next year. This is partly because we expect... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC deal means weaker growth in the Gulf in 2019 The deal reached by OPEC to reduce oil output means that the economic slowdown in the Gulf that we had expected from the middle of next year will now occur earlier and be more severe. Accordingly, we... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs can afford to loosen fiscal policy? Most of the major EMs have ample fiscal firepower. This is particularly true in Asia and we think fiscal policy is likely to be loosened in much of the region next year, which should cushion slowdowns... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC meets, Egypt’s exchange rate policy OPEC’s biannual meeting kicked off today and all the signs are that the cartel will agree to an output cut by the time the meeting concludes tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Egyptian authorities have taken... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) November’s PMI data suggest that the Gulf’s non-oil sectors have held up well given the backdrop of the fall in oil prices. But we doubt that this resilience will last. Meanwhile, the surveys showed... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US-China deal delays escalation, at least for now The ‘cease fire’ in the US-China trade war has reduced a risk for Asian EMs that are integrated into Chinese supply chains. But the potential fallout was always likely to be pretty small. The sharp... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs of EM growth stabilising in Q4 The aggregate EM manufacturing PMI edged up in November, which adds to the evidence that EM GDP growth has steadied in Q4 after a slowdown in Q3. The improvement has been driven by the BRIC economies... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slowed in Q3, but stabilising in Q4 Aggregate EM economic growth slowed to its weakest rate in over a year in Q3, but the data for October provide early signs that growth has started to stabilise in Q4. 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slump and output cuts, Egypt’s IMF deal The recent slump in oil prices is unlikely to cause major economic ructions in the Gulf, although it does look like policymakers will push ahead with an oil output cut at next week’s OPEC meeting... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco a bright spot in the emerging world Morocco’s rapid integration into global manufacturing supply chains, particularly in the automobile sector, should spur rapid economic growth in the coming years. We expect Morocco to be one of the... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fall in oil prices may slow pace of EM rate hikes The latest fall in oil prices means EM inflation is likely to rise more slowly. While we still expect a majority of EM central banks to hike interest rates, lower energy inflation may delay tightening... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
