Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What the rise in US-Iran tensions means for the Gulf Mounting friction between the US and Iran is likely to cause Iran’s economic downturn to deepen but, on its own, this doesn’t pose a major problem for the Gulf economies. The bigger threat is that... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Balance sheets improving, but vulnerabilities remain The health of balance sheets across the Middle East and North Africa have come under the spotlight in recent months. We are most concerned about some of the smaller economies, particularly Lebanon. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain’s fiscal woes, Tadawul falls, PMIs positive Developments in Bahrain over the past week suggest that the government is backtracking on its commitment to fiscal austerity. We doubt that the other Gulf countries will withdraw their support but, if... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies starting to slow GDP figures released over the past month showed that the largest Gulf economies recorded strong growth towards the end of last year, but a fresh slowdown has got underway at the start of 2019. This... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian competitiveness, Lebanon’s budget The Egyptian government’s decision this week to impose import tariffs on steel rebars and iron pellets highlights the government’s slippage on structural reforms and also suggests that the pound may... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco’s bond sale, Saudi risk premium Aramco’s bumper bond sale this week was seen by many as a vote of confidence in the Saudi economy and the government’s reform plans. But other indicators don’t back this up. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil producers to falter as Egypt strengthens We hold below-consensus growth forecasts for the Gulf States, where oil output cuts and renewed fiscal austerity will result in a sharp slowdown. We are, by contrast, relatively optimistic about the... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.) Strong PMIs across the Gulf were driven by higher oil prices rather than a sustained economic recovery. We expect that activity will slow as oil prices falter, though spending on the 2020 Expo will... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Synchronised downturn The emerging world has entered its first synchronised downturn since 2015. Our growth forecasts remain below consensus in nearly all major EMs. With growth slowing and inflation near a decade low, EM... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Strong growth won’t last, oil prices, Aramco’s finances The raft of Q4 GDP data released this week showed that the region recorded its fastest growth in three years at the end of 2018. But a slowdown is now underway and is likely to intensify. Meanwhile... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Twist in Algeria, Aramco-SABIC deal, Egypt’s draft budget The latest attempt to quell protests in Algeria doesn’t appear to have worked and there’s a risk that the demonstrations become more disruptive and the chances of a messy political transition are... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi projects, jitters over Lebanon, Egypt’s gas revival Plans announced this week for a wave of megaprojects in Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, add to the impression that the government is diverting its attention away from the bold reforms needed to... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Oil price boost for the Gulf to prove fleeting The recovery in oil prices since the start of this year is only likely to provide brief respite for the Gulf economies. Brent crude briefly touched $68pb this month, marking a 30% rise from the trough... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE’s property slump, Oman’s need for a bailout Talk of banks in the UAE needing to lengthen the maturity of real estate loans may be the first sign that the country’s property slump is starting to cause fresh debt problems. Elsewhere, Oman may not... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi bank tax, Oman gets junk status, Algeria protests Reports that the Saudi government is considering hiking taxes on banks supports our view that low oil prices will eventually prompt a return to fiscal austerity. Meanwhile, Moody’s decision to strip... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) February’s PMI data suggest that looser fiscal loosening has offset the impact of weaker external demand and supported a further pick-up in Saudi Arabia’s economy. In contrast, growth in the UAE and... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
