Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi GDP growth to weaken further Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed at the start of this year and we think that further weakness lies in store. Figures released in the past month showed that economic growth slumped from 3.6% y/y in Q4... 24th July 2019 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi sanctions and shopping, Egypt & Tunisia IMF deals A bill approved by the US House of Representatives this week that seeks to impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia has created headlines, but it is unlikely to result in aggressive action against the Kingdom... 18th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Regional growth to weaken further The regional slowdown at the start of this year has further to run. This will continue to be led by the Gulf countries, where the drag from oil output cuts will intensify and low oil prices will... 15th July 2019 · 24 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian fuel prices and rate cuts, US sanctions Lebanon Fuel price hikes announced in Egypt last weekend mean that the central bank probably won’t respond to June’s sharp fall in inflation by cutting interest rates later today. But the easing cycle looks... 11th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Set for a challenging second half of the year EM GDP growth has slowed sharply and, while it should bottom out soon, growth will remain very weak. Indeed, our forecasts lie below the consensus across much of the emerging world. 8th July 2019 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the EM investment slump EM investment growth probably slowed to its weakest rate in twenty years in early 2019, although most of that seems to be related to tighter financial conditions and low commodity prices rather than... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi slowdown, Aramco IPO, IMF worries over Lebanon GDP data released by Saudi Arabia this week showed that its economy slowed sharply in Q1 and, as the drag from oil output cuts intensifies and fiscal policy is tightened, growth will weaken further... 4th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jun.) June’s PMI figures were robust across the Gulf, but we expect that activity will slow as oil prices falter and fiscal policy becomes less supportive. Meanwhile, subdued price pressures in Egypt mean... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional tensions flare up The past month has been dominated by the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran and the risk of an outright conflict is rising. Admittedly, President Trump decided to call off airstrikes on... 26th June 2019 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon debt fears, regional tensions, Fed rate cuts The widening of Lebanese dollar bond spreads over the past week suggests that investors are coming round to our view that the authorities will need to resort to a debt restructuring. Meanwhile, this... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices & Whole Economy PMIs (May) The rise in Egyptian inflation in May, combined with upcoming subsidy cuts, means that the central bank will almost certainly refrain from resuming its easing cycle in the coming months. Meanwhile... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices plunge, anniversary of Qatar blockade The plunge in oil prices over the past week isn’t a major headache for the largest Gulf economies, but it will exacerbate balance sheet strains in Bahrain and Oman. It also reduces the chances that... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanese budget falls short, more slippage from Bahrain The negative market reaction to Lebanon’s 2019 budget suggests that investors are coming round to our view that the government will need to pursue debt restructuring in the coming years. Fiscal woes... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s subsidy cuts, OPEC+ to renew output deal Electricity price hikes announced in Egypt this week are actually less aggressive than last year’s, but this will shave only a small amount off headline inflation. And with fuel price increases still... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Lebanon stuck between a rock and a hard place The outlook for Lebanon’s economy is going from bad to worse. The most immediate threat is that the country could find itself caught in the crosshairs amid escalating tensions between the Gulf... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran tensions hit markets, Tunisia’s external risks mount Mounting friction between the US and Iran has dominated the news flow this week and weighed on financial markets across the MENA region. Investors seem to be most concerned that Lebanon will get... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
