Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fallout from Abqaiq attacks, Lebanon aid not a panacea Fears that Saudi Arabia would suffer prolonged disruption to oil output following Saturday's attacks on the Abqaiq oil facility have been avoided, but the attacks appear to have reduced the appetite... 19th September 2019 · 6 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations still don’t look low The valuations of EM assets have fallen significantly from their peaks in this cycle around the start of last year, but remain above their averages since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In our view... 12th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cuts, Egyptian inflation, Tunisian polls With one eye on the upcoming Aramco IPO and the fiscal position under strain, the odds of the Saudi government pushing for deeper oil production cuts are shortening. Meanwhile, the decline in Egyptian... 12th September 2019 · 5 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM financial markets not yet out of the woods The last few weeks have been kinder to EM financial markets than the start of August, when equities and currencies slumped as the US-China trade war ramped up again. Even so, neither has performed... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO, Lebanon’s emergency, clouds over Dubai The latest preparations ahead of a listing Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, Aramco, are unlikely to result in a shift in oil policy. Elsewhere, Lebanese policymakers are finally acknowledging... 5th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) August’s whole economy PMIs from the Gulf suggest that the pick-up in growth in non-oil sectors seen in the first half of the year has topped out. If oil prices stay low and fiscal policy becomes less... 3rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly No MSCI boost for Saudi stocks, Lebanese woes worsen The fall in the Saudi Tadawul equity index this week, despite the second phase of its inclusion in the MSCI EM index, reinforces our view that the stock market will struggle this year. Elsewhere... 29th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s mounting debt problems, Egypt’s gas boom Lebanon’s dire finances have come back under the spotlight and we continue to think that some form of debt restructuring is more likely than not. Argentina’s experience in the past couple of weeks... 22nd August 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currencies weaken, but EM rate cuts continue Argentina political developments sparked sharp falls in EM currencies over the past month, but this wasn’t enough to deter policymakers from continuing their easing cycle. Central bankers in Turkey... 21st August 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor More to the EM export slump than the trade war The US-China trade war, which has now been running for over a year, has exerted an increasingly large drag on EM exports. But other factors including weak global demand have been bigger drivers of the... 20th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Further signs of a slowdown in the Gulf The latest data suggest that GDP growth in the Gulf economies slowed in Q2, which is partly a result of cuts in oil production but also softer activity in non-oil sectors. The early data for July... 15th August 2019 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price plunge and Saudi austerity The plunge in oil prices over the past week won’t result in balance sheet strains in the Gulf economies, but it does strengthen our view that governments in parts of the region, most notably Saudi... 8th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain and Oman: neighbours unlikely to pull the plug Financial support from the Gulf means that Bahrain and Oman should avoid damaging devaluations and acute sovereign debt problems. Even if their governments fail to implement the fiscal tightening that... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) The drop in PMIs across the Gulf in July suggests that the pick-up in growth in non-oil sectors in the first half of 2019 has started to go into reverse. If oil prices stay low and fiscal policy... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf sovereign debt fears centre on Bahrain and Oman Government debt-to-GDP ratios across the Gulf have risen significantly over the past five years but only in Bahrain and Oman do we hold serious concerns over the health of the public finances... 31st July 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US rates and Gulf credit, Oman tightens fiscal policy Central banks in the Gulf will follow the US Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates next week, but past experience suggests that this is unlikely to provide a significant boost to the economy... 25th July 2019 · 5 mins read
