Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s turmoil, Dubai’s property woes, Aramco IPO Continuing protests and the resignation of PM Saad Hariri have taken Lebanon closer to the brink and a sovereign debt structuring is looking inevitable. Bond spreads are likely to widen further... 31st October 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional slowdown worsens The focus on political risk and Lebanon’s growing debt problem have meant that the sharp slowdown in growth across large parts of the region has gone unnoticed. The latest figures suggest that the... 29th October 2019 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the wave of protests in EMs While protests have spread across several EMs, most notably Hong Kong, parts of Latin America and Lebanon, there is no mechanical link between unrest and economic growth and asset prices. 25th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ output cuts, UK-Egypt flights, Lebanon protests Rumours that OPEC+ oil producers are contemplating deeper output cuts underlines the desire of policymakers in Saudi Arabia to push up oil prices. But this would come at the expense of weaker GDP... 24th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Slow recovery lies ahead The region is set to record its second-lowest growth rate this decade in 2019 and, while a recovery is likely to take hold in 2020, it will be slow going. The drag on the Gulf economies from this year... 24th October 2019 · 24 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why Lebanon is heading for a debt restructuring The recent protests in Lebanon highlight that it is politically impossible to push through the fiscal austerity needed to stabilise the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio. A debt restructuring is... 23rd October 2019 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s IMF talks, Saudi stocks drop, Tunisia elections Reports that Egypt and the IMF are in negotiations over some kind of future cooperation suggests that the authorities are trying to soothe investor fears of fiscal loosening. But the absence of... 17th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait’s weak economic performance to continue Economic growth in Kuwait is likely to remain sluggish in the coming years due to the impact of oil production cuts as well as ongoing tensions between the government and parliament, which will... 15th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisian election, pressure builds in Egypt for stimulus Tunisians will vote for their new president on Sunday with Kais Saied, an independent, facing off against Nabil Karoui, a recently-incarcerated media mogul. Whoever the next president is will face the... 10th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf recession fears, Lebanese pound under pressure National accounts figures released this week showed that Saudi Arabia’s economy officially entered recession in Q2 and Qatar’s economy shrunk too, all of which supports our below-consensus 2019 GDP... 3rd October 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) September’s batch of whole economy PMIs provided further evidence of a divergence between non-oil sectors in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. But we don’t think this will continue for much longer as the UAE... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s economic struggles to continue Dubai’s economy slowed in 2018 and the activity data for this year suggest that growth has stayed weak. The 2020 World Expo will provide a fillip to the economy, but a number of other factors mean... 2nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Political risks return to the fore Events this month have highlighted the risks posed by politics to the region’s two largest economies. While Saudi Arabia initially suspended around half of its daily oil output following attacks on... 30th September 2019 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output rebounds, expat levy, Thomas Cook Saudi Arabia has managed to get the bulk of its oil output back online following the Abqaiq attacks but, with oil prices drifting back towards $60pb, the debate may quickly shift to the need to extend... 26th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Aug.) Saudi Arabian consumer price figures showed that deflation eased to -1.1% y/y in August and we expect it to return to positive territory in annual terms at the start of next year. 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More good news than bad For all the talk of a global slowdown, the incoming data from the emerging world have been encouraging. Having bottomed out in Q2, GDP growth held steady at around 3.5% y/y at the start of Q3. EM... 20th September 2019 · 10 mins read
