Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi FDI revisions, Egypt-IMF deal, October’s PMIs Saudi Arabia’s revised foreign direct investment data paint a far rosier picture than previously, but there is still work to be done to meet the punchy targets of Vision 2030. Elsewhere, Egypt’s... 9th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How credible are the region’s currency pegs? Persistent balance of payments strains brought pressure on some of the region’s non-oil producing countries who employ fixed exchange rate regimes. FX reserves have been depleted to support currencies... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: That Xi-Biden meet in context – How fracturing is reshaping the global outlook 1700139600 The splintering of the world economy into competing US and China-aligned blocs is dominating the macro and financial and commodities markets outlook.
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank resilience improves, but risks continue to lurk Higher profitability has helped to boost EM banks’ financial positions over the past year and reduced the tail of weak banks that might struggle to cope with rising loan losses on their balance sheets... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Where does Saudi Arabia sit in a fracturing world? The past few years have seen Saudi Arabia continue to move away from the US orbit and, as part of our work on global fracturing, we no longer consider Saudi to be unaligned between the US and China... 7th November 2023 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2023) The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left its overnight deposit rate at 19.25% today but, with pressure on the pound mounting and inflation still well above target, there’s a good chance that policymakers... 2nd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s gas sector, Saudi budget, another MENA World Cup Egyptian officials confirmed this week that imports of gas fell to zero after Israel turned off the taps, which will curtail efforts to restart LNG exports. And with gas being cut to energy-intensive... 2nd November 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update War and Israel’s economy: lessons from history One question we have received frequently from clients is what lessons Israel’s previous wars offer when thinking about the effects on its economy from the conflict today. While no two events are the... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Moroccan auto industry set to make further strides Morocco’s automobile sector has gone from strength to strength in the past decade, with production now rivalling some producers in Central and Eastern Europe. With investment from major global... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3 2023, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the recession deepened in Q3, with GDP contracting by 3.9% q/q, after the Kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut and the non... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi Arabia real estate, Gulf deposits in Egypt Saudi Arabia’s mortgage market continues to struggle and, together with increased residential real estate supply in the Kingdom, is likely to keep property prices subdued for some time. Elsewhere... 26th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Focus Three key lessons on geopolitical risk and markets The war between Hamas and Israel – and the potential for escalation to the wider region – has increased the uncertainty around the economic and financial market outlook, but in most scenarios is... 26th October 2023 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing fiscal risks from higher interest rates in EMs Higher bond yields will add to fiscal pressures in those EMs with particularly large public debt burdens and weak debt dynamics. Brazil, South Africa as well as Colombia and Mexico are the EMs from... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 24th October 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s crisis nearing a crunch point Tunisia is stuck in a deep economic and political crisis, and with the IMF’s staff-level agreement yet to be approved, and it is only likely to get worse. We have long held the view that Tunisia is... 23rd October 2023 · 3 mins read