Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO, Saudi growth, Algeria’s election Aramco shares surged after the long-awaited IPO this week, and it looks like some of the proceeds from the sale may be spent by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund to offset the hit from the fiscal... 12th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts likely to drag on Saudi recovery The OPEC+ oil quota cuts announced today are unlikely to have a significant economic impact on most Gulf economies, but they will on Saudi Arabia. The direct impact of the output cuts means GDP growth... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon crisis, OPEC+ meeting, Aramco IPO Lebanese banks will make some interest payments on FX deposits in local currency, which adds to the evidence that strains in the balance of payments are worsening. The risk of a debt restructuring and... 5th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) November’s whole economy PMIs suggested that activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector has continued to strengthen, but with fiscal policy set to be tightened, this strength is unlikely to last... 3rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s central bank governor, Lebanese debt, Saudi tax The appointment of Egypt’s central bank governor, Tarek Amer, for a second four-year term will welcomed by investors as a sign that the government remains committed to orthodox policymaking and... 28th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Iranian oil output at low risk of long-term decline Since the imposition of US sanctions in May 2018, Iranian oil production has fallen by nearly 45%. For our part, we think that output would recover quickly if sanctions were lifted. Moreover, we see... 27th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Aramco IPO looks set to underwhelm Preparations for the public listing of Saudi state oil company, Aramco, have stepped up a gear this month but the signs are that it is unlikely to be the blockbuster sale that the Kingdom once hoped... 25th November 2019 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon crisis, Moroccan growth, UAE insolvency law Lebanon’s government should meet an FX debt repayment next week, but this will further drain the country’s FX reserves and pile further pressure on the dollar peg. Elsewhere, Morocco’s king appointed... 21st November 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Asian electronics and the coming EM export rebound The year-on-year rate of EM export growth should turn positive in the coming months, but this will mainly reflect favourable base effects from the Asian electronics cycle rather than stronger... 19th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s woes, Qatar blockade, Kuwaiti infighting The situation in Lebanon is going from bad to worse and the chances of a combined debt, currency and banking crisis are rising. President Aoun seems to be seeking a bailout package but this would only... 14th November 2019 · 5 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Equity rally unlikely to last, regardless of a trade deal EM equities have continued to rise over the past month, seemingly driven by optimism about an imminent US/China trade deal and some improvement in the economic data. But we are sceptical that the... 13th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update EM catch-up no longer the norm More EMs’ income levels have fallen relative to the US’s than have risen this year, the first time this has happened since the 1990s. This is likely to be a sign of things to come in the 2020s. 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How credible are the region’s dollar pegs? Many of the non-oil producing countries in the region have tended to support their dollar pegs by maintaining a level of FX reserves sufficient to cover the monetary base. In Egypt and Jordan... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO, Saudi fiscal policy, Lebanese banks A few more details of the Aramco IPO have trickled out in the last few days and we now know that 2% of the firm will be listed on the Tadawul on 11th December. The funds from the IPO wouldn’t be quite... 7th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) October’s whole economy PMIs suggest that the upturn in fortunes for Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector continued at the start of Q4. In contrast, the recent slump in the UAE appears to be more than just a... 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry on a stable footing in Q4 The EM manufacturing PMI stabilised in October and the breakdown provides further evidence that the downturn in EM export growth may have bottomed out. That said, any recovery is likely to be slow... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
