Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack China’s coronavirus and the fallout for EMs There is no longer any doubt that China’s newly-identified coronavirus will hit its GDP growth in Q1. And other parts of Asia (notably Hong Kong and Thailand) will suffer a drop in Chinese tourism... 27th January 2020 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for the EM easing cycle? We expect that the broad-based EM easing cycle has further to run in the coming months but, as growth and inflation in many countries rise, it will be less widespread than in 2019. More importantly... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s new (and Tunisia’s lack of) government Lebanon’s prime minister finally managed to form a new government this week and policymakers are quickly facing up to reality of the economy’s woes. A steep devaluation and a debt restructuring are on... 23rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2019) We estimate that net capital outflows from Emerging Markets fell to a six-month low in December, and they probably declined further at the start of this year. With global growth close to bottoming out... 23rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM growth to pick up despite China slowdown After a bad 2019, aggregate emerging market growth is likely to strengthen this year, driven by improvements in large EMs including Brazil, Russia and India. But recoveries will generally be... 22nd January 2020 · 24 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s debt swap, Egypt’s pound, Kuwait’s budget The unravelling this week of a proposed debt swap by the Lebanese authorities suggests that, even once a government is formed, debt restructuring will be a drawn-out process. Elsewhere, the Egyptian... 16th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower for longer: EM interest rates after the golden era This decade is likely to be marked by slower growth and softer inflation in emerging markets. One consequence is that interest rates will probably be lower than most currently anticipate. 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil prices, African Swine Fever & EM inflation Our measure of aggregate EM inflation, which hit a four and a half year high last month, should fall over the course of this year as the disruption caused by African Swine Fever fades. But this is... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran tensions, Egyptian inflation jumps The immediate threat of direct conflict between the US and Iran has diminished over the past day or so, supporting a rally in local and global financial markets. But the threat has not disappeared and... 9th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update US-Iran tensions and the threat to the rest of MENA Fears of a direct conflict between the US and Iran have eased over the past day or so, but the risk has not disappeared and the rest of the MENA region is vulnerable to any retaliation by Tehran... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s behind the weakness in the Gulf? The Gulf states are likely to have recorded their second weakest pace of aggregate growth since the global financial crisis in 2019 due to oil output cuts and poor performances from non-oil sectors... 7th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) Whole economy PMIs for December suggested that activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector slowed at the end of last year, a sign that fresh fiscal austerity is already starting to take its toll... 6th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Soleimani’s death and the threat of US-Iran war The assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a major figure in the Iranian regime, in a US airstrike last night has significantly raised the chances of an outright conflict between the US and Iran. We’ve... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi economy contracts, Sultan Qaboos’ health scare Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted in Q3 of last year and the latest evidence suggests that Q4 was even worse. While a recovery will probably take hold this year, we think that it will be weaker than... 2nd January 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for disappointing recovery in 2020 EM activity slowed at the start of Q4 and aggregate growth in 2019 as a whole is likely to be the weakest since 2015. Conditions should improve in 2020, but we think growth across many EMs will... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Political troubles casting a shadow Political developments across Algeria, Tunisia and Lebanon threaten to exacerbate already-poor balance of payments positions. Presidential elections that took place in Algeria last week don’t appear... 17th December 2019 · 14 mins read
