Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Currency adjustments lie in store in a few economies Current account positions in the largest MENA economies (particularly in the Gulf, but also Egypt) have improved over the past few years. But deficits elsewhere remain large. And Algeria, Tunisia and... 19th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jan.) Saudi inflation rose for a twelfth consecutive month in January and, while we expect a fresh slowdown in the non-oil sector to keep a lid on underlying price pressures, further hikes to local fuel... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor The outbreak of the coronavirus appear to have caused a pull back of net capital inflows to EM bond and equity markets on a similar scale to that seen during flare-ups in the US-China trade war last... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil output cuts, Dubai property, Lebanon-IMF talks The surprise increase in Saudi oil production in January suggests the Kingdom is no longer willing to shoulder the brunt of oil output cuts, which reduces the chance of deeper cuts in response to the... 13th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The coronavirus and the emerging world The impact of the coronavirus means aggregate EM GDP is likely to have contracted in q/q terms for the first time since the global financial crisis in Q1. If the outbreak is contained quickly, most... 12th February 2020 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central bank responses to the coronavirus fallout The economic disruption from the coronavirus outbreak will lead to further rate cuts in much of Emerging Asia. And in those countries where currencies have fallen sharply, the moves have not been big... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Coronavirus: the financial risks for EMs The coronavirus outbreak could expose financial vulnerabilities in China and other EMs if factory and other workplace closures are extended. Within China, property developers are particularly... 6th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s debt, Tunisia’s government, Jordan-IMF deal Lebanon’s Eurobond that matures in March has rallied over the past week amid rising hopes that the authorities will make the payment, but this will simply delay the inevitable debt restructuring... 6th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Recovery to disappoint even if oil price recovers Fears about the coronavirus outbreak have weighed on oil prices and clouded the near-term outlook for the Gulf countries. Lower oil prices and a possible deepening of oil production cuts will act as a... 5th February 2020 · 24 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the coronavirus on EMs The coronavirus outbreak will result in much weaker growth in China in Q1 and has hit tourism sectors elsewhere. If factory closures in China are prolonged, the epidemic could start to cause more... 4th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) January’s batch of whole economy PMIs suggested that activity in non-oil sectors in the Gulf slowed at the start of the year. Meanwhile, underlying price pressures seem to be building in Egypt, but we... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Solid January PMIs yet to capture coronavirus hit The January batch of EM manufacturing PMIs generally held up well, but the surveys are yet to capture the economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak. Extended factory closures in China are likely... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How important is Chinese tourism? Chinese international tourist spending has surged over the past decade, which is one reason to think that the economic spillovers will be greater for the coronavirus than they were for SARS. But... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus to hit EM growth Our Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP growth stabilised in Q4, but it will no doubt weaken sharply in Q1. The coronavirus has already dealt a significant blow to China’s economy, and other EMs... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price drop, Lebanon default risk, failed Saudi attacks The fall in oil prices on the back of fears about the coronavirus outbreak in China doesn’t pose a significant threat to Gulf economies, but it has raised the chances of deeper OPEC+ oil production... 30th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf tightening the purse strings Fiscal plans announced across the Gulf over the past month suggest that governments will keep policy tight, a key reason why we think that economic growth will disappoint this year. The Saudi 2020... 29th January 2020 · 14 mins read
