Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI masks weakening conditions The rebound in the EM manufacturing PMI in March offers little comfort as the survey masks the true weakness of industry. What’s more, the services sector may fare worse during this downturn. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of EM central bank bonds purchases EM central banks have acted swiftly in response to the coronavirus crisis, including adding bond purchases to their toolkit. These are aimed primarily at reducing credit spreads and stabilising the... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM Equities in Latam and EMEA likely to outperform Given how far they have fallen, we think EM equities in Latin America and EMEA will outperform their Asian peers once the coronavirus comes under control, even if the economic fallout in the former... 1st April 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How long will the Gulf endure oil at $20pb? Brent crude is closing in on $20pb and, if there are no signs of a recovery in the coming months, the chances that Saudi Arabia pushes for fresh oil output cuts will grow. Meanwhile, we are... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Would capital controls work in EMs? In the face of rapid capital outflows, EMs may turn to capital controls to stabilise balance of payments positions. Such measures might help to stave off crises in some countries (particularly if they... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM financial vulnerabilities greatest? The impact of global measures to contain the coronavirus will result in a steep fall in EM GDP this year. And the collapse in output, spike in capital outflows and plunge in commodity prices could... 30th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Virus measures may limit spread but recession lies ahead The outbreak of the coronavirus in the Middle East and North Africa has developed rapidly over the past month and, given this, most of the backwards-looking figures released over this period are... 27th March 2020 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Coronavirus latest, IMF deals, Egyptian pound The spread of the coronavirus in the MENA region has led to further draconian containment measures being implemented, which will cause severe economic damage. In turn, this has raised the chances of... 26th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Region to suffer worst downturn since the 1980s Governments across the Middle East and North Africa have taken increasingly draconian steps over the past couple of weeks to contain the coronavirus outbreak and, as a result, there will be much more... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM capital flows: bank flows are the big risk The dislocation in global financial markets has led to large capital outflows from EM debt and equity markets, which has caused financial conditions to tighten. And the economic effects could be much... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we about to see a wave of sovereign defaults? A record number of sovereign dollar bonds are now trading at distressed levels, although these are mostly those of smaller EM governments. Among the most highly distressed sovereigns, Zambia and... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs and the impact of containment measures The proliferation of measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus as well as shifts in consumer behaviour will have a severe effect on retail, accommodation, recreation and transport sectors across... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy, MENA virus responses ramp up The news that Saudi Arabia will deepen fiscal austerity suggests that, despite oil prices falling to their lowest levels since the early 2000s, the authorities have no immediate plans to reverse... 19th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tourism slump to hit parts of the region hard Efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak look set to hit tourism sectors across the MENA region hard. The North African economies, as well as Dubai, Lebanon and Jordan, are most vulnerable and the... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would struggle to contain an outbreak? Extremely dense populations in urban areas, poor healthcare provision, and limited ability to impose quarantine measures mean that countries in South and South-East Asia, as well as Egypt and Nigeria... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions: Alarm bells starting to ring The broad-based tightening in EM financial conditions in recent days has been similar in scale to the onset of the global financial crisis. Conditions are now particularly restrictive outside of the... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
