Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would suffer from a drop in remittances? Remittances held up well during the Global Financial Crisis but the scale (and type) of job losses in the current crisis mean that they are likely to fall sharply in the coming months. A drop in... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi fiscal tightening, Algeria woes, remittance slump Comments from Saudi’s finance minister support our view that fiscal consolidation rather than a devaluation will be relied on to make the adjustment to low oil prices, which will make the economic... 23rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The oil market rout, devaluations and defaults Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries should be able to weather the collapse in oil prices without abandoning dollar pegs, and Russia will still run looser fiscal policy this year than last. But... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor While emerging markets suffered large net portfolio investment outflows in March, the very latest data suggest that the pace of outflows eased in the first half of April. Meanwhile, it appears that... 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf to rely on austerity rather than devaluations The collapse in oil prices has led to renewed pressure on dollar pegs in the Gulf and, while there could be some positive effects on balance sheets from devaluations, the costs would be politically... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Is Dubai facing another debt crisis? Efforts to contain the coronavirus will cause Dubai’s economy to contract sharply, exacerbating overcapacity in key sectors and making it more difficult for the Emirate’s government-related entities... 20th April 2020 · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt moratorium, IMF SLL small steps in right direction The agreement by the G20 to allow the world’s poorest nations to suspend bilateral debt servicing will help to ease short-term balance of payments strains in much of Africa, most notably Angola, but... 17th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy, Oman budget cuts, IMF in MENA Comments from the Saudi energy minister yesterday suggested the recent price war was a blip in the Kingdom’s policy approach but, given easing oil demand over the coming decades, it might prove to be... 16th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns may not be effective in all EMs Lockdowns have proved successful at limiting the spread of coronavirus in the likes of China, Korea and the Czech Republic, but they are likely to be less effective in poorer countries – notably much... 15th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts mean Gulf slump to be even deeper The deal struck by OPEC and other oil producers to cut oil output sharply over the coming months will help to put a floor under oil prices, but the reduction in output simply adds to the reasons to... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: where do the risks lie? Non-performing loans are likely to climb in many EMs as output and incomes collapse, potentially forcing policymakers in some countries to step in and recapitalise banks. The risks are greatest in... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bond sales, NMC Health, Lebanese pound, OPEC+ Governments elsewhere in the Gulf are likely to follow Qatar and Abu Dhabi with dollar bond sales in the coming months as they look to secure funds in the face of low oil prices. The news that NMC... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The coronavirus crisis & EM public debt We think that most EM governments will increase the size of their fiscal support packages, which will cause public debt ratios to jump. For many of the poorest EMs, this will be supported by... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt, the pound and lessons from the past Egypt’s central bank is intervening to prop up the pound, but the experience from the previous decade is that such efforts ultimately prove futile. If policymakers try to support the pound for an... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.) March’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak have resulted in a sharp decline in activity in the region’s non-oil sectors. Containment measures have... 6th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi to dig in, Expo delay adds to Dubai debt fears Oil prices have surged amid hopes that Saudi Arabia and Russia will thrash out a deal to cut oil output, but recent developments suggest that the Kingdom will dig in and demand that the rest of OPEC+... 2nd April 2020 · 7 mins read
