Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Easing lockdowns, hopes for summer tourist season As Eid al-Fitr celebrations across the Middle East and North Africa draw to a close, a number of countries have started to outline their paths out of stringent coronavirus lockdowns. But with new case... 28th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns, infection rates and the EM recovery Large parts of Emerging Asia have controlled the virus exceptionally well, which should allow activity to recover quicker than in most other EMs. In contrast, many countries in Latin America are still... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bailout talks for Dubai, Egyptian pound weakens The past week has provided clear signs of the toll that the coronavirus crisis is taking on Dubai’s economy and negotiations are apparently underway for Abu Dhabi to ride to the rescue. But there is a... 21st May 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Benefits of sovereign default more compelling than ever Recent reports suggest that governments of some low-income countries are reluctant to restructure debts owed to private creditors for fear of losing market access and pushing up future borrowing costs... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly IMF talks, curfews, oil output cuts, Saudi inflation Egypt and Lebanon took further steps towards securing IMF support this week, but finalising a deal will prove much harder for the latter than the former. Elsewhere, countries across the region have... 14th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Interpret incoming GDP & CPI data with a pinch of salt With the incoming economic data likely to be less reliable than usual, we think that investors should focus more on the timely low-level activity data and the changing shape of infection curves to... 11th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi steps up austerity, Bahrain support to rise Comments from Saudi officials reinforce our view that a devaluation is unlikely and fiscal policy will make the adjustment to low oil prices. Capital spending is likely to shoulder the burden of the... 7th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A closer look at how Saudi Arabia uses its reserves There seems to be a lot of confusion as to exactly how Saudi Arabia uses its reserves to finance twin budget and current account deficits. In this Update, we shed some light on the matter. 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Apr.) Whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa were at, or close to, record lows in April as efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak severely dented economic activity. Lockdowns... 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs confirm manufacturing meltdown The drop in the EM manufacturing PMI to 42.7 in April confirms that industry is collapsing in Q2. Even though industry will bounce back in the EMs starting to ease lockdown measures, the weakness of... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The lowdown on EM lockdowns In those EMs that were quick to control their coronavirus outbreaks (South Africa, Poland, Vietnam), lockdowns are being eased which will allow activity to gradually recover. But the damage from... 4th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Coronavirus measures and low oil prices take their toll The early signs from the Middle East and North Africa are that efforts to contain the coronavirus and the collapse in oil prices are dealing a heavy economic blow. Whole economy PMIs plunged to record... 30th April 2020 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi balance sheet, curfews easing, Lebanon spat Figures published over the past week have provided the first signs of the hit to Saudi Arabia’s from lower oil prices; but we remain comfortable with our view that the dollar peg will remain intact... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Many EMs still have a lot of work to do The good news is that a handful of the early responders to Covid-19, including Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Czech Republic, have successfully flattened their infection curves. As life starts to get... 29th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Steepest downturn since the 1980s Efforts to contain the coronavirus mean that the economies of the Middle East and North Africa will suffer their steepest downturn this year since the early 1980s. Draconian social distancing measures... 28th April 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Long-lasting economic damage We estimate that aggregate EM GDP will shrink by 4% this year, by far the worst outturn since reliable records began in 1960. The recovery will be fitful, with output at an aggregate level likely to... 28th April 2020 · 26 mins read
