Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of the EM recovery The latest hard data, and our Covid Recovery Trackers, suggest that the downturn in EM GDP bottomed out in April and activity is now edging higher. But the recovery is uneven, with rebounds strong in... 22nd June 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Three key points on the latest export data EM goods exports have slumped during the coronavirus crisis but perhaps by less than might have been expected. Indeed, shipments from parts of Asia appear to have been boosted by a surge in demand for... 18th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s crisis, Egypt-Ethiopia spat, Hajj suspension, Comments this week from the leader of Hezobllah, Hassan Nasrallah, suggest that the Lebanese government is becoming increasingly disillusioned with talks with the IMF and is looking at alternative... 18th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks to weather the storm, but pockets of risk linger Banking sectors across the Middle East and North Africa are generally well placed to weather the current economic downturn but there are pockets of vulnerability, particularly in Qatar and parts of... 17th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that most EM currencies will rebound further While we think that much of the rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies is now behind us, we still expect that most of them will make a bit more headway against the dollar in the second half of the... 16th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are lockdowns being eased too soon? Policymakers in the likes of India, much of Latin America and parts of Africa are easing lockdowns even though the coronavirus is still spreading rapidly. This may be less economically damaging than... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt and the IMF, OPEC+ extension, Saudi case surge Egypt’s new IMF deal, coupled with May’s weak consumer price figures, has provided space for the central bank to resume its easing cycle at the MPC meeting later this month. Meanwhile, the extension... 11th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early evidence of major fiscal damage Recently released government budget data for April suggest that fiscal deficits in many EMs, including in Brazil, Mexico, India and Turkey, may be running at 10-20% of GDP. This won’t cause a spate of... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at EM financial conditions Financial conditions have eased substantially across major EMs over the past few months, but we doubt that this fading headwind will turn into a major tailwind for activity in the coming quarters. 9th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of steeper EM yield curves? The steepening of EM local currency government bond yield curves since the crisis began in mid-February largely reflects a fall in short-term rates, but in some cases, like Brazil, Mexico and South... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi reserves and the PIF, lessons from the EGP fall The recent sharp decline in Saudi Arabia’s foreign exchange reserves reflects, to a large degree, a shift in where the Kingdom holds its foreign assets rather than them being relinquished to prop up... 4th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Remittance slump adds to economic headwinds The measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak have shut down economies across the world, leading to job losses and falls in income. Migrant workers appear to have felt the brunt of this and the... 3rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (May) Whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa rose compared with last month’s ultra-low levels as lockdown measures began to be eased, but activity remained very weak. And against... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs suggest the worst may be over for EM industry While we would interpret the May PMIs with caution, the small rise in the EM manufacturing PMI last month tallies with high-frequency indicators and suggests that EM activity is probably past the... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Diverging prospects Timely data suggest that April may have been the trough for EM GDP, and activity at an aggregate level should recover – albeit slowly – in the coming months. But this is likely to mask a significant... 29th May 2020 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Economic impact of coronavirus not easing up The rapid spread of the coronavirus in the region means that plans to lift lockdowns have come later than in many other EMs and the damaging economic effects of social distancing have persisted. The... 28th May 2020 · 14 mins read
