Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Fresh virus outbreaks to hinder economic recoveries The Gulf economies have been the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak in the region but almost all countries have managed to put new daily cases on a downwards trend thanks to strict containment... 31st July 2020 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Many EMs still grappling with virus outbreaks Much of Latin America, South Africa, and parts of Asia – notably India and the Philippines – are still struggling to contain their first waves of coronavirus. And while policymakers in these countries... 31st July 2020 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Dubai GREs, Hezbollah-Israel conflict, peak oil demand The past week has highlighted the strains that the coronavirus crisis has inflicted on some of Dubai’s government-related entities and reinforced our concerns over their ability to service large debts... 30th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Austerity and tourism to hinder recovery Oil production cuts, fiscal austerity, the continued spread of the virus, and weakness in key tourism sectors will hold back economic recoveries across the Middle East and North Africa. It will be one... 28th July 2020 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor First signs of EM recovery losing steam Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the EM recovery hit a snag in July, partly due to escalating coronavirus cases and tightening restrictions in some EMs (South Africa, Colombia, Hong Kong). This may... 28th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook An uneven recovery An economic recovery is underway across emerging markets, but there are big differences in its speed and strength between regions and countries. China’s economy is making up lost ground rapidly and... 23rd July 2020 · 26 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf rulers’ health, Dubai property downturn Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and Kuwait’s Emir Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah were both hospitalised this week, raising questions about a future transition of power in both countries. We doubt that this would... 23rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia’s political crisis, Kuwait debt, GERD, OPEC+ Political turmoil in Tunisia this week culminated in Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh’s resignation, which will ultimately hold up efforts to secure a new IMF deal and raises the risk of a sovereign debt... 16th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Diriyah Gate, UAE banks, migrant workers in the Gulf The construction of the new Diriyah Gate tourist development in Saudi Arabia started in the past couple of weeks, but the plan raises concerns that the authorities are repeating their past mistakes... 9th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jun.) June’s batch of whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa were mixed but the big picture is that, even as lockdown measures are eased, the region’s economic recovery is set to be... 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EM inflation? A rebound in fuel inflation will push up headline inflation in most EMs over the coming months, even as food and core price pressures moderate. Alongside the recovery in activity, this means that the... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Dubai GDP, tourism, Egypt & the IMF, Lebanon’s crisis Dubai’s economy contracted sharply in Q1 but more timely figures show that the downturn deepened in Q2 and we expect the recovery to be weak. Elsewhere, the inclusion of Morocco and Tunisia on the EU... 2nd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Manufacturing recovery underway The strong rise in the EM manufacturing PMI from 45.4 in May to 49.6 in June suggests that EM manufacturing is firmly on the road to recovery. We think that the rebound in activity will probably be... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will we see a turn to austerity in EMs? Governments in Brazil and South Africa have outlined plans for large multi-year fiscal squeezes from 2021, which will hold back their economic recoveries and are likely to be politically untenable... 30th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE banks, Kuwait’s savings, Egyptian cafés Reports this week echoed our concerns over the UAE’s banking sector, where non-performing loans were rising even before the onset of the coronavirus crisis. Elsewhere, Kuwait’s government is... 25th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack End of lockdowns unlikely to lead to rapid recovery Governments across MENA have taken steps to re-open economies over the past month and, after a sharp downturn in April and May, daily indicators suggest activity has started to recover. That said... 24th June 2020 · 14 mins read
