Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug) Our Tracker suggests that EMs experienced net capital inflows last month for the first time since the coronavirus crisis began. Daily data suggest that net capital inflows were generally sustained in... 26th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the state of coronavirus in MENA Governments across the Gulf have managed to get on top of coronavirus outbreaks but Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, and Lebanon have seen the virus spread rapidly in recent weeks. These economies are the... 26th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Austerity to hold back economic recovery The recovery in oil prices from their nadir in April has not prompted policymakers in the Gulf to row back on their plans to push through fiscal austerity. Saudi Arabia suspended the Cost of Living... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack First waves still the big concern A handful of countries in East Asia and Eastern Europe (notably Korea and Poland) are suffering from rising coronavirus cases again, but the hit to activity there resulting from precautionary consumer... 25th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the latest EM coronavirus numbers Emerging markets account for the majority of new global coronavirus cases each day (see Chart 1) and, while containment measures may be tightened sporadically, these are generally likely to be... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of Q2 GDP and the recovery so far The latest Q2 GDP figures show diverging depths of downturns between EMs (outside China), which can largely be explained by differences in the severity of virus outbreaks and the stringency of... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oman’s reshuffle, peace with Israel, Saudi-OPEC The shake-up at Oman’s foreign ministry this week may herald a warming of ties with the rest of the Gulf and pave the way for bilateral financial support. Bahrain is reported to be next in line to... 20th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports facing greater headwinds EM goods exports rebounded reasonably strongly in June and July but, with the global recovery showing signs of losing momentum, further gains from here are likely to be slow-going. 19th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on the Israel-UAE peace deal The normalising of relations between Israel and the UAE may pave the way for similar agreements with the other Gulf countries, notably Saudi Arabia. The move might help to foster economic relations... 13th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s woes, Oman’s loan to precede Gulf support The resignation of Lebanon’s government is unlikely to result in the political change that protestors are demanding and, with debt restructuring negotiations on hold, bondholders will probably have to... 13th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why Turkey contagion risks are smaller than in 2018 Concerns are mounting that Turkey is on the brink of a fresh currency crisis which, were it to materialise, could trigger some turbulence in other EMs’ financial markets. But it’s unlikely to result... 13th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account data suggest Turkish lira is an outlier A fundamental force behind the growing pressure on the Turkish lira is the economy’s widening current account deficit. But in most cases, the Covid-19 crisis appears to be causing current account... 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Latest on the Beirut blast, oil price rise The major explosion in Lebanon’s capital city, Beirut, has caused enormous destruction and sadly the disaster will only deepen the country’s economic, humanitarian, and political crises. The high... 6th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Debt restructurings: lessons from Argentina & Ecuador Argentina and Ecuador’s swift debt restructuring deals may provide a blueprint for other debt-distressed sovereigns. But these deals are not quite the success stories they seem at first sight. In any... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) July’s batch of whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa all rose compared with surveys from June but, against the backdrop of prolonged weakness in tourism and hospitality... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Uneven manufacturing recovery continues The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in July (to 51.4) should be treated with caution but, even so, it still suggests that conditions in EM manufacturing are improving. The recovery is likely to be... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
