Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

UAE’s to remain the Gulf’s star economy

The UAE’s economy has been the strongest performer in the Gulf over the past year or so and a robust non-oil sector should help the UAE retain its crown as the fastest growing economy in the region.

6th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Jul. 2024)

July’s batch of PMIs were softer across the board, adding to signs that activity in private non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf is weakening. Egypt’s PMI also dropped back but, under the hood, there...

5th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Geopolitical tensions ratchet up risks for Israel

An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East risks delaying Israel’s economic recovery even further, adding to pressure on the country's strained public finances, and pushing up risk premia on...

2nd August 2024 · 10 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Oil prices rise on Middle East conflict, cut down by US

The oil market's fairly muted reaction to events in the Middle East this week only temporarily reversed the recent downward trend in oil prices. On the face of it, however, the risk of a spike in oil...

2nd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing finally running out of steam

The sharp fall in the EM manufacturing PMI suggests that the recent strength of industry may not be sustained in Q3. The declines in the PMIs were broad-based, although they are still relatively high...

1st August 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Tensions ratcheting up, Egypt-IMF, Saudi Q2 data

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are on the brink of boiling over after Israel’s assassinations of high-ranking Hezbollah and Hamas officials this week. It remains to be seen what the response...

1st August 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Aug. 2024)

Financial vulnerabilities have continued to ease across EMs. Our EM aggregate currency crisis risk indicator hit a multi-year low in Q2, with especially large falls in Turkey and Pakistan. Sovereign...

1st August 2024 · 1 min read

Event

Drop-In: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilities

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How has the level of financial risk evolved among emerging markets over the past three months?

Climate Economics Monthly

Key highlights from July

This Monthly looks at some of the key climate-related developments in July, including the latest climate policy changes made by the new UK government, the effect of overcapacity on Chinese solar...

31st July 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2 ‘24 Flash Estimate)

Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of GDP showed that that the economy grew by a solid 1.4% q/q in Q2 and, while non-oil activity is likely to slow over the second half of this year, it will be more than...

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2024)

Our MENA Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output...

29th July 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The macro impact of an Israel-Hezbollah conflict

The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend has heightened fears of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Israel, this risks adding to...

29th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt energy woes, UAE GDP, Tunisia elections

Blackouts continued in Egypt this week, and while there are some short-term fixes, the government will need to boost investments over the coming years to avoid repeats, particularly if it also wants...

25th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt’s energy woes need a permanent fix

The electricity blackouts that have blighted Egypt this summer may be nearing an end. But in the absence of new major gas discoveries, in the longer run rising energy demand will result in renewed...

23rd July 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Trump and Saudi-US relations, IMF growth downgrades

Donald Trump has laid out his intentions of restoring warm ties with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election, with the intention of pulling Saudi back into the US’s orbit in a fracturing global economy...

18th July 2024 · 6 mins read