Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Asia leading the way The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin... 23rd October 2020 · 26 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf to lean more on debt markets amid low oil prices Oman this week became the latest government in the Gulf to tap international bond markets, taking the region’s issuance so far in 2020 to an annual record. In Oman's case, while this will help to... 22nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Recovery faces strong headwinds The economies of the Middle East and North Africa have continued to recover in recent months but, while the Gulf countries seem to have the virus under control, low oil prices mean that fiscal... 21st October 2020 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The US election and its impact on emerging markets Whatever the outcome of the US election, we expect that the trends of US-China decoupling and deglobalisation will continue. The election result could be pivotal for some EMs: a Joe Biden victory... 16th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly NCB-Samba merger, Oman VAT, OPEC+ deal The merger between National Commercial Bank and Samba is the latest effort to consolidate the Saudi banking sector and, with the crisis likely to weigh on profitability, it may be a sign of things to... 15th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the latest bout of EM capital outflows Daily data suggest that foreign investors have been net sellers of emerging market bonds and equities in recent weeks, but there are reasons not to be very concerned. 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian inflation and the IMF, GDP data, Tunisian debt Egyptian inflation data for September, due next week, are likely to be low enough to result in the IMF encouraging the central bank to cut interest rate cuts. Elsewhere, the raft of recently-released... 8th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s debts still a major cause for concern Fears over Dubai’s debts have re-emerged in recent weeks and, in this Update, we provide revised estimates of the Emirate’s debt pile. The short point is that the debts of Dubai’s government and of... 6th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) September’s whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa all rose as a further easing of virus containment measures supported another pick-up in economic activity. But against the... 5th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Solid September PMIs, but recovery to lose steam September’s relatively strong batch of emerging market manufacturing PMIs suggests that recoveries in industrial production continued in September. But with the global rebound losing steam, growth in... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi austerity, Arabtec liquidation, Lebanese politics Saudi’s preliminary 2021 budget showed that, with oil prices likely to stay low, fiscal austerity is here to stay and this will act as a key headwind to the economic recovery. Elsewhere, the collapse... 1st October 2020 · 5 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap The latest on sovereign debt restructurings Recent moves by Angola and Zambia to restructure their public debts (or seek to) are unlikely to act as a trigger for a wave of similar steps by other debt-distressed frontiers. Indeed, their... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recoveries entering a slower phase, China an exception The latest activity and mobility data indicate that the EM recovery has lost some steam in recent months and we expect the pace of recovery to remain slow-going in the coming quarters. The main... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of EM financial conditions EM financial conditions have tightened a little in recent weeks, although only in Turkey does this threaten to become a significant headwind to growth. Elsewhere, conditions remain very loose but the... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest EM virus trends Most EMs in Latin America, Africa and South Asia that were battling worryingly large virus outbreaks appear to have passed the peak in recent weeks. That should allow a gradual scaling back of... 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
