Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) November’s whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa showed a mixed performance and, despite the global economic backdrop improving amid the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines... 3rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The reversal of relative fortunes within EM equities We think that the outperformance of equities in EM EMEA and Latin America relative to those in EM Asia in November is a sign of things to come, as the world recovers from COVID-19. 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE oil discovery and OPEC, protests in Tunisia This week’s revelation by the UAE that it has discovered major new oil reserves boosts the economy’s long-term prospects but it may further raise questions over its commitment to OPEC. Alongside the... 26th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Vaccine developments brighten the economic outlook The positive news on COVID-19 vaccines in recent weeks has helped to lift the near-term outlook for the Middle East and North Africa. For the Gulf countries, oil prices have picked up with Brent crude... 24th November 2020 · 14 mins read
Long Run Focus The winners and losers from climate change Climate change will be more costly to EMs than developed countries, with parts of Africa, as well as South and South East Asia most vulnerable to rising global temperatures. That said, some EMs could... 19th November 2020 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco issuance, OPEC-JMMC, Lebanon politics Saudi Aramco’s dollar bond sale this week has added to the signs that the government is squeezing every last drop out of the company in order to contain this year’s budget deficit, but it does add to... 19th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Are the region’s currency pegs still credible? Policymakers across the region have drawn down foreign exchange reserves this year in order to prop up currency pegs and, in the Gulf countries at least, this can be sustained for some time to come... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly COVID-19 vaccine hopes, asset sales, UAE reforms The distribution of an effective COVID-19 vaccine would provide a boost to economic recoveries, particularly in those economies most vulnerable to social distancing measures, such as Dubai, Morocco... 12th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rise in Egyptian inflation to 4.5% y/y in October adds to the reasons why we think that policymakers will hold off on cutting interest rates when they meet on Thursday. Further out, we think that... 10th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery hopes dim Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has lost momentum in recent months and persistent low oil prices reinforce our view that policymakers are unlikely to row back on fiscal austerity and there is rising... 9th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US election, oil output cuts, COVID-19 restrictions This week’s US election has yet to reach a conclusive result, but some of the potential downside risks facing the Middle East and North Africa appear to have diminished. Meanwhile, OPEC+ seems to... 5th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will Gulf governments finance budget deficits? The deterioration in Gulf public finances this year has pushed governments across the region to finance a significant portion of their budget deficits through international debt markets, which we... 5th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) October’s whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa were a mixed bag but, against the backdrop of renewed lockdowns across the globe and low oil prices, recoveries are likely to... 3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the fall in price of oil mean for the Gulf? The latest fall in the price of oil increases the chances that current OPEC+ production quotas are extended beyond the end of this year and reinforces our view that governments across the Gulf are... 2nd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi budget, Hariri returns, Oman gets financing Data published this week showed that, even though it’s early days, fiscal austerity in Saudi Arabia is already having the desired effect of improving the underlying budget position. But this will come... 29th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack OPEC+ cut extension would drag on GDP The latest OPEC oil production figures continue to show that several countries are overproducing, which is making Saudi Arabia – which has borne the brunt of production cuts – increasingly frustrated... 26th October 2020 · 15 mins read
