Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia and the IMF, UAE COVID outbreak, “The Line” Tunisia’s government appears to be gearing up to secure a new IMF deal and, while fiscal consolidation will be among the Fund’s key conditions, it will prove difficult to implement. Elsewhere, the UAE... 14th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi inflation dropped back to 5.3% y/y in the final month of last year as softer food and housing inflation more than offset a further rise in health inflation to a two-year high. The effects of... 14th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rising inflation to keep easing cycle on pause Egyptian inflation is likely to rise over the next 6-9 months due to stronger food and fuel inflation, as well as a weaker pound, which will prevent the central bank from resuming its easing cycle for... 13th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output, vaccine rollout, Qatar un-blockaded Saudi Arabia’s surprise voluntary oil output cut unveiled at this week’s OPEC+ meeting has lifted oil prices, but will mean that GDP growth will probably be weaker in Q1 than we had previously... 7th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update End to Qatar blockade not an economic gamechanger The announcement that Saudi Arabia will remove its three-year blockade of Qatar will help to strengthen political ties in the Gulf, but the direct economic benefits from the détente are likely to be... 5th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) December’s whole economy PMIs suggest that the Gulf economies have been boosted by improved sentiment on the back of the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. But activity in Egypt weakened as the country... 5th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to look out for in 2021 The roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines and easing of containment measures will boost all the MENA economies next year, although this will be quicker in the Gulf countries which have greater access to... 21st December 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Easing oil output quotas to provide boost to Gulf The OPEC+ agreement earlier this month to increase oil supply will mean that downturns in hydrocarbon sectors across the Gulf will start to ease. And, of course, the Gulf countries will also benefit... 18th December 2020 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The Arab Spring: 10 years on Ten years on from the “Arab Spring” uprisings that afflicted large swathes of the Middle East and North Africa, hopes for a shift to democracy that would unleash reforms and transform the region’s... 17th December 2020 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly COVID-19 vaccines, Dubai tourism, Egypt privatisations COVID-19 outbreaks in the region have started to come under control and, with vaccination programmes starting (in the Gulf at least), the near-term economic outlook is brightening. Dubai’s economy... 17th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget: keeping a tight grip on the purse strings The Saudi 2021 budget shows that the recent improvement in the oil market hasn’t swayed officials to alter their plans to keep fiscal policy tight in the coming years. This will help to keep the... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Nov.) Saudi inflation held steady at 5.8% y/y in November as a rise in transport inflation was offset by weaker price pressures elsewhere. The effects of July’s VAT hike will continue to keep the headline... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt budget, Bahrain stimulus, Dubai property Figures out of Egypt this week showed the budget deficit has narrowed this year, highlighting the commitment to keep debt on a downwards trajectory but at the cost of a weaker recovery. In contrast... 10th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 5.7% y/y in November still leaves it below the lower bound of the central bank’s target range, leaving the door open for interest rates to be lowered further over the... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Adjusting our forecasts in light of COVID-19 vaccines A rebound in global economic activity triggered by COVID-19 vaccines will lift the oil market and, in turn, the Gulf economies over the coming quarters. But one legacy of the crisis is that these... 7th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ deal, Qatar blockade, Morocco and the IMF The past week has been dominated by the OPEC+ meeting and, while it has highlighted growing tensions with the cartel, it seems that the group is edging towards an agreement that involves a small rise... 3rd December 2020 · 6 mins read
