Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran nuclear deal, Egypt in the GBI-EM, vaccine worries Hopes of a positive start to talks on reviving the Iran nuclear deal were dampened after Iran announced plans to increase uranium enrichment, highlighting that negotiations have a long way to go. If... 15th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Jordan’s royal tumult, OPEC+ surprise, UAE’s vaccines The royal turmoil in Jordan this week couldn’t come at a worse time for the economy and, if corruption allegations spur unrest, this would raise serious fears over the country’s poor external and... 8th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi investment plans, UAE vaccine, Jordan-IMF The Shareek investment program launched in Saudi Arabia this week may help diversification efforts, but there is a risk it leads to a misallocation of resources that damages longer-run growth... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Headwinds to the recovery start to build The economic data out of the emerging world for Q1 look reasonably strong, but worsening COVID-19 outbreaks and a shift towards policy tightening are creating headwinds for some EMs. Activity in... 31st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Tourism sectors likely to remain a laggard The recent rise in COVID-19 cases in the region adds to reasons to think that a recovery in tourism is some way off. Governments across the world seem, in any case, appear increasingly reluctant to... 25th March 2021 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oman and Bahrain fiscal woes, Egypt SMEs, Suez Canal Bahrain and Oman appear to be taking contrasting approaches to fiscal austerity but, in both cases, we think that further assistance from the rest of Gulf will be needed to keep dollar pegs intact... 25th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting financial repression in EMs The recent rise in EM sovereign bond yields will, if sustained, make public debt problems in some countries even worse. Those with large local currency debts may ultimately turn to financial... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon crisis, Saudi privatisation law, vaccine latest The long-running crisis in Lebanon hit a fresh low this week and, with the formation of a new government nowhere in sight, conditions are unlikely to improve any time soon. Elsewhere, the passing of a... 18th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Taper tantrum fears return EM financial markets have been hit this month by the rise in US Treasury yields, which has re-ignited some concerns about a re-run of the Taper Tantrum. So far, capital outflows from EMs have been... 16th March 2021 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil attacks, PIF loan, Egyptian bond yields The recent attacks directed at Saudi oil infrastructure did not leave any meaningful damage, but they did push up global oil prices earlier this week and highlighted the lingering risk to the economic... 11th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising bond yields and the threat to EM debt burdens The rise US Treasury yields poses a risk for those EMs with large external financing needs such as Turkey as well as some smaller frontier markets, and could force central banks in these countries to... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Oman loan, vaccine latest The OPEC+ meeting could see the group opt to roll over its production cuts into April (rather than easing quotas) which would push back the recovery in GDP growth in the Gulf. Even so, the drag from... 4th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap SDR allocation no panacea for distressed frontiers A fresh allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), if implemented, would provide a welcome boost to the depleted foreign exchange reserves of some distressed frontier economies. But an... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) February’s batch of whole economy PMIs suggest economic activity in non-oil sectors across the region eased last month on the back of tighter virus containment measures. Aside from the UAE... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs still point to further EM recovery February’s manufacturing PMIs released across the emerging world were the proverbial mixed bag but, taken together, generally point towards solid EM industrial production growth in the next month or... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran nuclear deal, Kuwaiti budget, Lebanon vaccine President Biden’s administration has taken the first steps to try and revive the Iran nuclear deal and, while there remain major hurdles, this could put downward pressure on oil prices. This would add... 25th February 2021 · 5 mins read
