Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply shortages and EM inflation risks Supply-related price pressures are building, particularly in Central Europe and parts of East Asia. And while the factors behind this should prove temporary, output gaps in the most-affected countries... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran: nuclear deal, elections and the economy Negotiators appear to be closing in on an agreement to revive Iran’s nuclear deal which, if revitalised, would provide a substantial lift to Iran’s economy – it could plausibly expand by 8-10% per... 7th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain COVID-19 surge, Oman strikes, OPEC+ meeting The recent surge in COVID-19 cases in Bahrain – which comes despite a rapid vaccine rollout – will delay its economic recovery and serves as a warning that other countries’ vaccination campaigns have... 27th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Inflation edges higher Headline inflation rates have increased in almost all countries in the region since the turn of the year reflecting a combination of price pressures as economies re-open, higher food inflation and tax... 27th May 2021 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran deal, Gulf re-opening, Tunisia debt restructuring If reports suggesting that the Iran nuclear deal will be revived (perhaps as soon as next week) prove right, the lifting of sanctions would probably weigh on oil prices as Iran ramps up production... 20th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Deal or no deal, Iran’s oil output set to rise this year A revival of the nuclear deal with Iran would pave the way for sanctions to be lifted, boosting the country’s oil production and weighing on prices. By contrast, while we still expect Iranian output... 17th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE property sector, Tunisia’s COVID crisis, remittances Recent figures suggest that the downturn in the UAE’s real estate sector has bottomed out but we still hold concerns that increasing supply will exacerbate overcapacity and put further strain on banks... 13th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fiscal purse strings kept tight, for now Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit narrowed in the first quarter of the year on the back of higher non-oil revenues and a sharp reduction in capital spending. Higher oil revenues will support a further... 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia and the IMF, April’s PMIs, Hajj restrictions Tunisia’s government has jump started talks with the IMF over a fresh financing package but it may prove difficult to secure. If the talks fall apart, Tunisia would be pushed towards a messy balance... 6th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Takeaways from MbS’s interview Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave a rare TV interview this week and hinted that some of the government’s recent fiscal tightening may be unwound, which would boost the economic... 29th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook New virus waves to drag on the recovery The surge in virus cases across large parts of the emerging world and the slow pace of vaccine rollout mean that the headwinds facing the EM recovery are building. EM currencies are likely to see... 28th April 2021 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates on hold, for now The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) opted to keep interest rates on hold at its meeting today and, with inflation likely to rise over the coming months, we think policymakers will keep rates unchanged... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Vaccination roll outs pick up pace The Gulf economies, as well as Morocco, lead the way when it comes to COVID-19 vaccination programmes in the region. The UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar have provided at least one dose to more than half of... 28th April 2021 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf leads the way in unbalanced recovery A strong vaccine rollout in the Gulf, particularly in the UAE and Bahrain, and Morocco should mean that containment measures are eased soon, paving the way for sustained economic recoveries. But the... 27th April 2021 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi privatisation, UAE TESS extended, Tunisian politics The Saudi government is speeding up its privatisation drive, which will help to finance the budget deficit. But the continued reliance on the Public Investment Fund to drive investment risks... 22nd April 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Virus outbreaks cloud the outlook New COVID-19 cases have surged in the emerging world, with India, Emerging Europe and Latin America particularly hard hit. Social distancing measures have been tightened in many countries, which will... 21st April 2021 · 11 mins read
