Emerging Markets Economics Update SDR allocation a positive but won’t solve debt woes The $650bn allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) that was finally signed off by the IMF yesterday should provide welcome relief to some frontier markets such as Ghana and Kenya that still... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Clouds over Asia, bright spots in EM Europe & Lat Am While the pandemic continues to hold back recoveries in Southeast Asia, the near-term outlook appears brighter in Emerging Europe and Latin America. However, low vaccine coverage in the latter means... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Unrest in Tunisia, Gulf restrictions, Egypt fuel hike Tunisia’s President Kais Saied’s power grab on Sunday and moves over the course of this week will reinforce concerns about the future of democracy in the country and the likelihood of a sovereign debt... 29th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Saudi economy picking up pace Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery appears to have been quite strong in Q2 and the further easing of virus restrictions and rising oil production means that GDP growth will continue to gather steam over... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack OPEC+ agreement provides a boost to Gulf recoveries The end of the impasse within OPEC+ this month will result in higher oil output and boost recoveries in the Gulf over the second half of this year and in 2022. Output quotas will rise by 400,000bpd... 28th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Tunisia: political turmoil further raises debt risks The decision by Tunisia’s President Kais Saied to sack the prime minister and freeze parliament has raised serious concerns about the future of democracy in the country and couldn’t come at a worse... 26th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Delta variant poses biggest threat to non-Gulf economies Concerns about the Delta variant of COVID-19 have grown over the past week but high vaccine coverage in the Gulf means that policymakers are unlikely to resort to harsh containment measures. Other... 22nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We expect EM currencies to remain under pressure We doubt that today’s rebound in emerging market currencies marks the start of a renewed rally and expect them to continue to depreciate against the US dollar over the next few years. 21st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics A two-speed recovery Strong COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in most of the Gulf and Morocco mean that remaining virus restrictions should be lifted by the end of this year, providing a boost to recoveries that, in the Gulf... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have passed the peak After surging over the past year, the latest data provide signs that EM goods exports have now passed their peak. However, they are still likely to stay at elevated levels for some time yet. 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the Delta variant’s threat to recoveries The spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 poses a much bigger risk to economic recoveries in emerging markets than in developed markets. India, South Africa, and South East Asia have suffered... 20th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Higher OPEC+ production to weigh on oil prices The OPEC+ agreement, signed yesterday, should help to stabilise oil prices and we expect Brent crude to trade in a narrow band of between $70 and 75 per barrel over next six months. But we expect... 19th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Saudi-UAE oil deal, Saudi fuel cap, Moroccan reforms Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have seemingly reached an agreement over oil output quotas and the resulting rise in production will boost economic recoveries across the Gulf over the... 15th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Saudi inflation rose to 6.2% y/y in June but it will fall sharply in July to around 1.0 y/y as the effects of last year’s VAT hike fall out of the annual price comparison. Inflation is likely to hover... 15th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, Oman and the IMF, vaccines in Egypt The failure of OPEC+ to reach an agreement over new output quotas has raised the likelihood that the deal collapses and the Gulf states ramp up production. Elsewhere, Oman has asked for IMF assistance... 8th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate edged up to 4.9% y/y in June and is likely to increase further over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will keep... 8th July 2021 · 2 mins read
