Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Omicron, tourism and the oil market Low vaccine coverage and large tourism sectors mean that the non-Gulf economies are particularly vulnerable to the emergence of the Omicron variant. Meanwhile, the drop in oil prices and the... 2nd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy set for a strong end to the year The economic recovery in Saudi Arabia has picked up pace and should end the year on a strong note. The emergence of the Omicron variant has clouded the outlook, but for now we expect economic growth... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack MENA and the Omicron risks The Middle East and North African economies are potentially among the most vulnerable to the fallout from the Omicron strain of COVID-19. The North African economies as well as Lebanon and Jordan have... 30th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor The impact of Omicron on EM trade If the new Omicron variant leads to tighter containment measures across the world, that would probably prop up demand for pandemic-related goods to the benefit of Asian exporters. Meanwhile, oil... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Omicron variant and the threat to EMs There’s a lot that we don’t know about the new Omicron variant. But if it proves more virulent, the economic fallout would probably be largest in EMs in parts of Africa and South and South East Asia... 29th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SPR release, Turkey exposure, Egypt price adjustments The US-led release of oil reserves earlier this week did little to bring down the price of oil as President Biden would have hoped and, if anything, could provoke OPEC+ to raise oil production more... 25th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s fragile external position poses risk to dinar Tunisia’s external position is in a dire state and policymakers have little ammunition available to defend the dinar. We think the currency will depreciate by more than 10% against the euro by the end... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia fiscal policy, Egypt’s private sector, COVID-19 Tunisia’s government upwardly revised its 2021 budget deficit target this week which, coupled with growing signs of it making concessions to appease the UGTT labour union, adds to our view that the... 18th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pockets of vulnerability in MENA banking sectors Most banking sectors in the region (with the notable exception of Lebanon) have, so far, come through the COVID-19 crisis in relatively good shape. But with support programmes now being withdrawn... 18th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Saudi inflation edged higher to 0.8% y/y in October and will probably continue to drift upwards over the coming months. Overall, though, we expect price pressures to remain subdued, at 1.0-2.0% over... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia unrest, Kuwaiti government, Oman fuel prices Escalating social unrest in Tunisia and opposition to fiscal reforms from the powerful UGTT labour union will make it more difficult for President Saied to push through much-needed fiscal reforms and... 11th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Where are frontier sovereign debt risks greatest? The precipitous decline in Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves means the risk of a near-term sovereign debt default is increasing. Elsewhere, Tunisia also stands out on account of its public debt... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased to 6.3% y/y in October and is likely to remain around 6.0-6.5% over the rest of this year and in early 2022. Against this backdrop, we think the Central Bank of... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3, Flash Estimate) The Saudi economy expanded by 5.8% q/q in Q3, the fastest pace of growth in over a decade, as the ramping up of oil production drove the recovery. As OPEC+ continues to raise production quotas... 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation, Saudi budget, Bahrain’s fiscal plan Rising wheat and gas prices have added to concerns about inflation in Egypt, raising the risk that the central bank fails to deliver the interest rate cuts that we currently anticipate next year... 4th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery set up for strong end to the year Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery looks to have picked up speed in Q3 and should remain strong over the rest of this year and 2022, underpinned by rising oil output. 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
