Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil and Gulf fiscal policy, Egypt joins GBI-EM, Tunisia We think that the recent rally in oil prices is likely to be short lived and, as prices fall back, the window for governments in the Gulf to loosen fiscal policy will shut. Elsewhere, Egypt’s... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi inflation edged up to 1.2% y/y in December and we think that the headline rate will drift a little higher over the first half of this year before stabilising at around 1.0-1.5% over the rest of... 13th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect in MENA in 2022 We think that GDP growth in the Gulf will be stronger than most expect this year on the back of rising oil output. Elsewhere, we expect a larger depreciation of the Egyptian pound than most anticipate... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose to 5.9% y/y in December and it is likely to increase further over the coming months, peaking around the mid-point of the central bank’s target range in Q2. This... 10th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Gulf tightens restrictions, Egypt budget This week’s OPEC+ meeting turned into a fairly straightforward affair with the group raising output as planned, but if we’re right in expecting oil prices to drop back, the window for governments in... 6th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Omicron puts a small bump on the road to recovery December’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that activity in non-oil sectors in the Gulf softened due to the uncertainty created by the emergence of the Omicron variant. Restrictions have been... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi budget, Fed and the Gulf, Tunisian politics Saudi Arabia’s 2022 Budget revealed that the government plans to cut spending in order to run a budget surplus for the first time since 2013. But the true fiscal stance is being muddied by an... 16th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Powell pivot and what it means for EMs Yesterday’s Fed meeting confirmed a hawkish shift. Turkey aside, we doubt that this is likely to cause major strains in the balance of payments of most EMs. But the Fed’s hawkish turn may cause... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf governments to keep fiscal policy tight Governments across the Gulf have begun to unveil their 2022 budgets and tight fiscal policy remains the order of the day. Saudi Arabia outlined a 6% cut in spending next year that is expected to push... 15th December 2021 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) Saudi inflation rose to 1.1% y/y in November, and is likely to increase further through the first half of next year. Even so, we expect price pressures to remain subdued, at 1.0-2.0% over the course... 15th December 2021 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Dec.) OPEC oil production increased in November, but once again by less than the group’s target. We think OPEC will continue to under-produce, but it should still account for a large share of the world’s... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran-JCPOA, Qatar’s budget, UAE working week shift The seventh round of talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal resumed today, having halted last week, and it appears as though reaching an agreement is some way off. This could put upwards pressure on... 9th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate dropped to 5.6% y/y in November and, while we think inflation will rise in the coming months, it is likely to be at the lower end of the central bank’s 7±2% target... 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Energy market poses downside risk to the Gulf OPEC+ left the door open last week to change its oil output policy before the next meeting and, if output is raised more slowly or not at all, this would knock GDP growth back mechanically in the Gulf... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf ends 2021 strongly but Omicron a key threat November’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that non-oil sectors in the Gulf continued their recent strong trend, but the emergence of the Omicron variant – and threat of tighter restrictions –... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and frontiers in the firing line The dramatic slump in the Turkish lira over the past month once again leaves the currency firmly in crisis territory. One crumb of comfort is that Turkish banks are in a better position to cope with... 7th December 2021 · 6 mins read
