Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation surge not just a food and energy story Higher food and energy prices go some way to explaining the rise in headline inflation rates across the emerging world, but this is only part of the story. Core inflation has also jumped in many EMs... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What Sheikh Khalifa’s passing means for the UAE The passing of the UAE’s President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al Nayhan today is unlikely to alter the economic outlook with GDP set to grow rapidly amid stronger oil output and looser fiscal policy... 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s budget, UAE welfare, Lebanon election Egypt’s draft budget reiterated the government’s commitment to keeping fiscal policy tight but, with debt servicing costs rising sharply and the currency set to weaken, there are increasing concerns... 12th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Three positive stories from frontier markets There has been plenty of doom and gloom surrounding the outlook for frontier economies over recent months, particularly Sri Lanka and Tunisia. But there are some places where we hold more upbeat views... 12th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM sovereign debt: where do the risks lie? The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets... 11th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to a near-three year high of 13.1% y/y in April on the back of the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and effects of the devaluation of the pound. Inflation will... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external strains still a risk despite devaluation The war in Ukraine has compounded strains in Egypt’s balance of payments and prompted officials to devalue the pound. The key risk now is that the authorities revert to heavily managing the nominal... 9th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response S&P Global PMIs (Apr.) April’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed a loss of momentum at the start of Q2 but continued to highlight the growing divergence between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies as a result of the spillovers... 9th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What a strong dollar means for EMs While a stronger dollar is generally regarded as a headwind for EMs, we think it will only be a minor one for most major EMs, particularly compared with the headwinds from weakness in China... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ and the Russian oil embargo, GCC follows Fed The EU’s plans to phase out imports of Russian oil would increase the chances that the Gulf economies raise oil output more quickly. This would provide a significant fillip to economic recoveries this... 5th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded by a robust 2.2% q/q in the first quarter of the year, which translated into year-on-year growth of 9.6% – the fastest pace recorded since 2011. With oil production to... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Pockets of public debt vulnerability Tighter global monetary conditions and spillovers from the war in Ukraine have caused public debt problems to worsen in several emerging markets, and the MENA region is not immune to this. Within the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oman's income tax, Egypt privatisation drive Reports over the past week suggest that, despite the boost to the public finances from high oil prices, Oman’s government is sticking to fiscal tightening with the likely introduction of a personal... 28th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf leads the way as Ukraine war drives divergence The Gulf economies will be major beneficiaries from higher energy prices and our growth forecasts sit far above the consensus. Outside the Gulf, higher inflation and tighter fiscal policy will weigh... 25th April 2022 · 25 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Slim chance of another 2000s-style boom in EM equities We think that a period of sustained outperformance from emerging market equities relative to those in developed markets – like that which accompanied the last big bull run in commodities in the 2000s... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
