Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Saudi inflation edged down to 2.2% y/y in May as food and transport inflation slowed last month, and, while we think that the headline rate will drift higher over the coming months, it is unlikely to... 15th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs appear to have eased over the past month, but rapidly tightening external financing conditions mean that this won’t last for long. Large outflows already seem to have pushed... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, PMIs, Tunisia austerity plans Last week’s decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace at which it is raising its oil production quota will provide a fillip to economic growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Meanwhile, May’s batch of... 9th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi economy set for a strong couple of years Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery is likely to be one of the strongest in the emerging world over the next couple of years as oil output is ramped up and fiscal policy is loosened. We expect GDP growth... 9th June 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) Egypt’s headline inflation rose to a three-year high of 13.5% y/y in May as the lagged effects from the devaluation of the pound in March continued to push up non-food inflation. Inflation will... 9th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s privatisation drive and lessons from history Egypt’s government is set to kick off its latest privatisation drive later this year, but its track record provides little hope that it will meet targets. The authorities are likely to retain a high... 6th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A modest recovery in EM manufacturing The S&P Global EM Manufacturing PMI for May suggests that the easing of virus-related disruptions in China supported a small rebound in EM manufacturing last month, but the sector remains very weak... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ talks, strike in Tunisia, Egypt’s bread subsidies Reports that OPEC+ may suspend Russia from its oil output deal reinforce our view that the Gulf states will raise production faster later this year. Meanwhile, Tunisia’s largest trade union called... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM sovereign bond yields will resume their rise While the yields of emerging market local-currency and dollar-denominated sovereign bonds have dropped back in recent weeks, we expect them to resume their rise before long. US Payrolls Drop-In (3 rd... 31st May 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi fiscal policy, the IMF in Tunisia and Egypt Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan provided hints in comments this week that the fiscal purse strings could soon be loosened if oil prices remain elevated. Elsewhere, officials in... 26th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Monetary tightening stepped up A majority of central banks in the region hiked interest rates over the past month. In the Gulf, central banks raised interest rates in line with the Federal Reserve, although this won’t necessarily... 26th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia joins the EM rate hike club Upside surprises to inflation coupled with a hawkish Fed have prompted aggressive monetary policy responses by central banks across the emerging world over the past month. Policymakers in Czechia... 23rd May 2022 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia rate hike, Saudi budget data, Egypt privatisations Tunisia’s central bank hiked interest rates this week with policymakers almost certainly having one eye on the country’s fragile external position. But we do not think that this will prevent sharp... 19th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs appear to have picked up over the past few weeks amid the general risk-off mood in global financial markets. This is a worrying development for countries with fragile... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi set for bumper GDP growth this year Saudi Arabia’s economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade in Q1 and we think this strength will carry on over the rest of this year. The combination of rising oil output and the increasing... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi inflation to stay in check, risks lie to downside Headline inflation in Saudi Arabia rose to 2.3% y/y in April and we think that it will continue to accelerate over the coming months. Unlike in other parts of the emerging world, however, inflation... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
