Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi oil policy, Egypt’s debt return, Israel-Lebanon

Saudi Arabia is reportedly set to change tack and raise oil output to recapture lost market share, which would provide a mechanical lift to GDP and the Kingdom is in a strong position to weather any...

26th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

EM growth enters a slower phase

Aggregate EM growth is entering a softer patch, despite the tailwind from the Fed’s easing cycle. Growth concerns will prompt central banks in much of Asia to cut interest rates. But stubborn...

25th September 2024 · 26 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus

Saudi Vision 2030: where it is going right (and wrong)

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme has resulted in major societal and cultural changes, but many of the economic reforms are currently not on track to hit their targets. That is not to say...

23rd September 2024 · 29 mins read

Event

Drop-in: Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 – Where it’s going right (and wrong)

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Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme is passed its halfway point with clear evidence of major societal and cultural changes.

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Flooding in Central Europe, Israel’s new phase of war

The flooding across Central Europe over the past week will likely weigh on activity in September, but we think that the economic impact will be relatively short-lived and won’t shift the monetary...

20th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt-PIF investment, monetary policy in MENA

The announcement that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund will invest $5bn into Egypt’s economy is a further sign that the weaker pound has made Egyptian assets more attractive and will help to put...

19th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Gulf’s non-oil sectors set for a slowdown

Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen sharply in 2025 as oil output cuts are unwound. But lower oil prices will prompt a turn to fiscal consolidation in most of the Gulf, causing...

19th September 2024 · 20 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

How will the Fed loosening cycle impact the Gulf?

The US Federal Reserve looks certain to start its loosening cycle this evening and, by virtue of their dollar pegs and open capital accounts, central banks across the Gulf will follow suit. Lower...

18th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2024)

EM recoveries are beginning to slow and will continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard...

17th September 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EMs: key client questions answered

We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on...

16th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ fallout, Egypt’s LNG imports, Gulf and the Fed

Oil prices continued to fall this week, despite OPEC+’s decision to roll over production cuts. And given the way OPEC+ is now losing market share, we think the case for Saudi Arabia, the group’s de...

12th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs

The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia...

12th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi between a rock and a hard place on oil policy

Saudi Arabia has cut oil output aggressively in the past two years but this has failed to prevent a slide in the Kingdom’s oil revenues. Officials are facing a tough choice over what to do next and...

11th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024)

Egypt’s headline inflation strengthened from 25.7% y/y in July to 26.2% y/y in August, breaking a five month streak of decelerating inflation, after electricity and fuel price hikes. We expect...

10th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ decision, Saudi Arabia’s Article IV, Egypt inflation

The recent slide in oil prices has raised the prospect that OPEC+ delays planned increases to output at its meeting next week, but this risks stoking tensions among key members if it means that the...

5th September 2024 · 6 mins read