Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed for the first time since November to 13.2% y/y in June, but inflation will remain above the upper bound of the Central Bank of Egypt’s target range until late... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How far are we through the EM tightening cycle? Tightening cycles in Latin America and Emerging Europe are already at an advanced stage. Some 70-80% of the likely rate hikes in their cycles have already been delivered and policymakers will bring... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response S&P Global PMIs (Jun.) June’s PMIs were the proverbial mixed bag, but the bigger picture is that activity in the Gulf economies has remained robust and there are signs that firms are increasingly passing on higher costs to... 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly World Bank food loans, OPEC, SAMA liquidity injection Egypt and Tunisia received loans from the World Bank this week to help them face rising global food prices, but the loans will not cover all of the increase in imports and alleviate strains in balance... 30th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update SAMA likely has more to do to ease liquidity concerns Reports that the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) has injected liquidity into the banking sector appears to be a consequence of a lack of FX intervention (despite high oil prices), tight fiscal policy and... 30th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the surge in EM food inflation Aggregate EM food inflation has risen to its highest rate since 2008 and, while it should fall back in 2023, it’s likely to stay extremely high for at least the next four-to-six months. That will keep... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf a bright spot We think that rising oil production and high global energy prices will result in rapid GDP growth this year and next across the Gulf economies. Growth is likely to be well above consensus expectations... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM assets & the risks from tighter DM monetary policy We doubt that aggressive policy tightening by developed market (DM) central banks will be followed by a series of financial crises in major emerging market (EM) economies in the way that it has at... 27th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs stepping up to support currencies A handful of EM central banks have ramped up FX sales to provide support to weakening currencies over the past couple of months. And with inflation high and the US dollar likely to strengthen further... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Region’s financial markets routed Risk-off sentiment and the sell-off in EM financial markets have hit the Middle East and North Africa hard. Having been the top regional performer earlier in the year, the MSCI Arabian Markets Index... 24th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Energy OPEC+ to change tack from September Whilst OPEC+ has been failing to meet its production quotas in recent months, it will technically finish unwinding its pandemic-related supply cuts come September. We think OPEC+ will then move to a... 23rd June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack High inflation to keep central banks in tightening mode Having surged in recent months, there are some tentative signs that EM inflation is nearing a peak. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation was steady at 7.0% y/y between April and May and some... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ policy, Egypt’s orthodox shift and FY22/23 budget Next Thursday's OPEC+ meeting may drop some hints about the future for the group's oil output beyond September and we think that quotas are likely to be lifted. If that’s the case, the Gulf economies... 23rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt public finance risks contained… for now Egypt’s public debt dynamics look increasingly fragile due to a combination of the extremely short average maturity of its debt, rapidly rising yields, and a growing share of debt denominated in... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, food security and inflation Shortages of food supplies and surging prices have led some EMs to impose export restrictions on key agricultural products, a trend that threatens to become more prevalent and serve to keep prices... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fed hikes, Egypt’s policymaking, Egypt-Israel-EU gas deal Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed in hiking interest rates and further tightening lies in store. But there are reasons to think that the region’s economies will be relatively unscathed by... 16th June 2022 · 7 mins read
