Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Nov.)

November’s batch of PMIs provide further evidence that the non-oil sectors in the Gulf economies are rounding off the year on a strong footing.

5th December 2022 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ meeting, Qatar-Germany gas deal

It seems likely that OPEC+ will opt to continue with October’s agreement to cut output quotas by 2mn bpd when the group meets on Sunday. That said, there are further signs that the group will become...

1st December 2022 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ tensions, US-Saudi relations, Saudi-Argentina

The volatility of oil prices has highlighted the uncertainty over the current OPEC+ oil output agreement and adds to our view that, with tensions already reportedly strained between members, the...

24th November 2022 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

North Africa turns to IMF to ease external strains

Economies across North Africa have endured severe balance of payments strains this year and governments in Egypt and Tunisia finally secured staff-level agreements with the IMF over the past month...

23rd November 2022 · 10 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt privatisation, Saudi investment, Qatar World Cup

Egypt’s state ownership policy document could come into effect in before the end of this year, but it remains to be seen how willing the authorities are to relinquish their control over the economy...

17th November 2022 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Morocco’s external position better than rest of N. Africa

Morocco has been hit hard by the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and, while its external strains aren’t anywhere near as sever as those in Egypt and Tunisia, we think the authorities will need to...

16th November 2022 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.)

Saudi inflation eased a touch from 3.1% y/y in September to 3.0% y/y in October (Consensus: 3.0% y/y; CE: 2.8% y/y) and we think the headline rate will continue to slow heading into 2023.

15th November 2022 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt-UAE wind farm, Dubai property, Egypt downgrade

Egypt’s announcement at COP27 of plans to build one of the largest onshore wind farms is a positive move to increase renewables usage that will improve energy security and support the balance of...

10th November 2022 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The acceleration in Egypt’s CPI inflation rate from 15.0% y/y in September to a four-year high of 16.2% y/y in October (consensus 15.6% y/y, CE 15.8% y/y) lends support to our view that policymakers...

10th November 2022 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt and Tunisia heading down different paths

The recent IMF deals reached by governments in Egypt and Tunisia are positive developments and will help ease balance of payments strains in both countries. Egypt has already made progress with...

9th November 2022 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi banking sector, UAE-Saudi quarrel, COP27

The surge in Saudi interbank rates in recent weeks could cause credit growth to slow more quickly than we currently expect. Elsewhere, reports point to growing discontent in the UAE with Saudi Arabia...

3rd November 2022 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Frontier currencies in the firing line

Currencies in some of the largest frontier markets, including Nigeria and Vietnam, have come under pressure recently as the external backdrop has deteriorated and domestic policy concerns have mounted...

3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Oct.)

October’s batch of PMIs picked up in most of the region but there remains a stark divergence in growth prospects between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies.

3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Data Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3, Flash Estimate)

Saudi Arabia’s economy posted a strong 2.6% q/q expansion in Q3, driven in large part by rising oil output. The subsequent OPEC+ cuts mean that that boost will fade over the coming quarters and we...

31st October 2022 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt (finally) shifts to flexible pound, secures IMF deal

This week ended with a bang as Egypt finally shifted to a more flexible exchange rate and secured an IMF deal. Some short-term economic pain is on the cards, but the move will help to restore macro...

27th October 2022 · 8 mins read