Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi and the “petroyuan”, investors like EGP fall Comments by Saudi Arabia’s finance minister that the Kingdom could conduct trade in currencies other than the dollar will add fuel to the debate about the rise of a “petroyuan”. There are hurdles to... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: will falls in the pound trigger a public debt crisis? The recent falls in the Egyptian pound pose a threat to Egypt’s fragile public debt dynamics but we think that the government will be able to muddle through. The key risk is that the government shifts... 18th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt, the pound, and competitiveness The sharp fall in the Egyptian pound today means that, in real trade-weighted terms, it is at its lowest level since the 2016 devaluation. The experience from that period is that the boost to Egypt’s... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) Egypt’s CPI inflation rate jumped from 18.7% y/y in November to 21.3% y/y in December, its fastest pace since the end of 2017. With the pound having weakened even further since the turn of the year... 10th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fears EGP fall will trigger sovereign debt crisis overdone The latest fall in the Egyptian pound sends a strong signal that the authorities are committed to the shift to a more flexible exchange rate. And while the weaker currency poses a threat to the... 5th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pound fall a sign that officials are on right path The sharp fall in the Egyptian pound today, coming in the wake of last week’s move to ease FX restrictions, suggests that the authorities are starting to make good on their pledge to shift to a more... 4th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response PMIs (Dec.) December’s PMIs suggest that non-oil sectors across the Gulf lost some steam at the end of 2022, with the worsening global backdrop weighing particularly heavily on the UAE. Elsewhere, there were... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The 300bp interest rate hike by the Egyptian Central Bank (CBE), which took the overnight deposit rate to 16.25%, suggests that policymakers are even more concerned about rising inflation and further... 22nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisian debt, Morocco & CBAM, Jordan protests The result of parliamentary elections in Tunisia last weekend will probably strengthen President Saied’s ability to pass laws, but could also dissuade the IMF from formally approving a financing... 22nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Door still open for fiscal loosening in the Gulf The slide in the price of oil since November has a little further to go in early 2023 and, while we think prices will recover later in the year, hydrocarbon revenues in the Gulf will be lower than... 21st December 2022 · 10 mins read
Global Economic Outlook 2023 marked by recession and disinflation We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across the board but... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly CBE surprise meeting(?), Tunisia elections, World Cup Rumours are building the Central Bank of Egypt could convene a surprise meeting later today to deliver another aggressive interest rate hike ahead of the approval of the IMF deal tomorrow. This could... 15th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) Saudi inflation ticked down to 2.9% y/y in November on the back of a drop in food inflation. We think the headline rate will continue to fall back toward 2.0% y/y over the course of 2023. And, if... 15th December 2022 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Dec.) OPEC lowered its world oil demand forecasts for the next six months yesterday, but raised its demand forecasts for the following six months. This supports our view that the cut to OPEC+ output quotas... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil sectors to fuel Gulf slowdown Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, next year. Oil output cuts will weigh on the Gulf even as fiscal policy stays loose. And while IMF... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly N. African IMF deals, Saudi Budget, China-Saudi relations The IMF Executive Board is set to approve Egypt’s deal next week, but it’s notable that Tunisia staff-level agreement doesn’t seem to be on the Board’s agenda and the uncertainty will add to threat of... 8th December 2022 · 7 mins read
