Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAIBOR surge, CBE meeting, Tunisia-EU loan Saudi Arabia’s interbank rates hit their highest level in over two decades this week and, if officials want to prop up credit growth, the Saudi Central Bank may need to step in once more to provide... 15th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May 2023) Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate rose a touch to 2.8% y/y in May, as an acceleration in non-food inflation more than offset the further slowdown in food inflation. We think the headline rate will resume... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch Supply constraints still likely to push the oil price higher The latest OPEC oil market report confirms that OPEC countries implemented a fresh round of voluntary production cuts in May, slashing the group’s crude output by 0.4m bpd. Similar to OPEC’s own view... 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch Supply constraints still likely to push the oil price higher The latest OPEC oil market report confirms that OPEC countries implemented a fresh round of voluntary production cuts in May, slashing the group’s crude output by 0.4m bpd. Similar to OPEC’s own view... 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi may struggle to sustain loose fiscal stance Saudi Arabia’s fiscal position has deteriorated over the past few quarters on the back of lower oil prices and production, and officials are increasingly doing all they can to sustain the current... 12th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi sporting fever, OPEC+ fallout, Kuwait elections Saudi Arabia has dominated the sports headlines this week with big-money moves for global football stars a sign that the Kingdom is recycling large current account surplus. But the move does raise... 8th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy to contract on back of oil output cuts Saudi Arabia pushed through another oil production cut at the OPEC+ meeting, but, it will come at the cost of slower economic growth and we now think the economy will contract by 0.5% this year. The... 5th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Saudi mortgages and 2022 census This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting will be closely watched. We expect that the group will stand pat on Sunday, but OPEC+ has a history of springing surprises. Meanwhile, the Kingdom’s 2022 Census revealed... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly BCT independence, Saudi-OPEC+, Egypt reforms The independence of Tunisia’s central bank has come under threat this week, which will only diminish any remaining hopes that the country’s IMF deal will be approved. Elsewhere, comments from Saudi... 25th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Energy Drop-In: Is OPEC+ gearing up for another cut? 1685624400 Speculation is building that, after its surprise April cut failed to lift oil prices for very long, OPEC+ could use its 3rd-4th June meeting to announce further production cuts.
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf growth slowing The flash Q1 GDP figures for Saudi Arabia showed the economy grew at its weakest pace in two years at the start of 2023, reflecting the cut in oil production in line with the OPEC+ decision in October... 24th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: The case for EM equity outperformance 1685628000 During our latest monthly dive into the big themes in emerging markets, the team discussed the macro and market forces that could see EM equities breaking their recent run of underperformance again
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt playing with fire The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) opted to leave interest rates unchanged at Thursday evening’s MPC meeting and the lack of comment on the pound will only add to investor concerns about the commitment... 19th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from our EM roundtables Over the past couple of weeks we have held a series of roundtable discussions with clients across Asia and North America on the outlook for EMs. In this Update we provide our thoughts on the recurring... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt reform progress, Saudi public finances Egypt’s government laid out fresh efforts this week to attract greater foreign investment into the country which also coincided with the first state asset sale in nearly a year. But, unless the... 18th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt sovereign default worries mount Fears among investors have continued to grow that Egypt’s government will default on its debt in the coming years although, for now at least, there remains a path to avoid such an outcome. Taking that... 18th May 2023 · 7 mins read
