Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate eased from 2.7% y/y in June to 2.3% y/y in July, the slowest outturn since the middle of last year and we think the headline rate will continue to edge lower... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s recession deepens Oil output cuts fuelled Saudi Arabia’s economic downturn in the first half of 2023 and the drag from the oil sector appears to have intensified more recently. Taking together with signs that activity... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco profit slump, Egypt back on the orthodox train? The slump in the profits of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, Aramco, in Q2 has focussed attention on the deterioration in the Kingdom’s budget position. But the authorities appear to be taking as... 10th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) Egypt’s headline inflation hit a fresh record high of 36.5% y/y in July and, with a fresh devaluation of the pound on the cards in the coming months, it will remain elevated for some time. The Central... 10th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt hikes, but still work to do The Central Bank of Egypt unexpectedly hiked interest rates late yesterday, by 100bp to 19.25%, but it still needs to follow through with another devaluation as well as further rate hikes in order to... 4th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Record SAIBOR, Egypt FX crunch, Saudi extends oil cut The Saudi Arabian interbank rate hit its highest level in over two decades and, with credit growth in the Kingdom slowing, pressure is likely to mount on the Saudi Central Bank to intervene and inject... 3rd August 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE: a soft 2023, but set to be GCC top performer in 2024 We have collated a range of low-profile activity data for the UAE that point to strong activity in the non-oil economy. But this won’t be enough to offset the impact of oil production cuts. Prospects... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Jul. 23) July’s batch of PMIs for the region were a mixed bag, with the surveys from the Gulf falling back as they did in many other emerging markets but still pointing to robust non-oil activity. Elsewhere... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2 2023, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the economy fell into a technical recession on the back of oil output cuts, whereas the non-oil economy continued to post robust growth. With the Kingdom... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM food security risks back in the spotlight Risks to EM food supply have increased amid the likelihood of an El Niño, the end to the Black Sea grain deal and India’s rice export ban. Countries in the Middle East and Africa are the most... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi sporting focus, Egypt dollar draw, Tunisia loan Saudi Arabia’s Pro League went from the back pages to the front pages this week after Al-Hilal record bid for PSG’s Kylian Mbappé. While the news has put renewed attention on the Kingdom’s sporting... 27th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: end of Black Sea deal to add to near-term pain The end to the Black Sea grain deal has put Egypt’s vulnerability to rising global wheat prices back in the spotlight. Even if supply disruptions are avoided, higher wheat prices would add to strains... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-UAE relations, Saudi inflation, Egyptian LNG A recent report in the Wall Street Journal suggests that tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased. This may raise the threat of the UAE leaving OPEC+, which would result in global oil... 20th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus How can Egypt unlock its economic potential? Egyptian policymakers’ commitment (or lack of) to economic orthodoxy continues to provide cause for concern and, while we don’t share the view that sovereign default is a serious risk, the near-term... 20th July 2023 · 19 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisations, Dubai real estate A round of state asset sales announced in Egypt this week suggests that there is fresh impetus behind the privatisation drive and that the government is pushing to get the IMF deal back on track. But... 13th July 2023 · 7 mins read
