Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Growth prospects for 2024 improving After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 25th September 2023 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s presidential election, GCC debt, Morocco-IMF Speculation is mounting that Egypt may bring forward its presidential election, which would go some way towards explaining policy paralysis around the pound. If this persists and a de facto peg is... 21st September 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Addressing key questions from our Egypt drop-in Yesterday, we hosted a Drop-in webinar taking a closer look at the state of play in Egypt and whether the country can get its IMF deal back of track. You can view on-demand here. This Update addresses... 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation and rates, Morocco quake, new oil f’casts The further rise in inflation in August means that the Central Bank of Egypt will probably raise interest rates again next week, but investors (and the IMF) will be paying more attention to any news... 14th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 2.3% y/y in July to 2.0% y/y in August, the weakest pace of inflation in over a year and we think it will ease further heading into 2024. 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of Morocco’s earthquake The devastating earthquake that hit Morocco on Friday evening has severe humanitarian consequences, but, from a purely economic standpoint, it should only have a small and short-lived impact on GDP... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cut, another delay to Egypt’s IMF review? Saudi Arabia announced it will roll over its additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut until the end of the year, which we think will push the economy into a sharp contraction over the second half... 7th September 2023 · 9 mins read
Event MENA Drop-In: Can Egypt get its IMF deal back on track? 1694599200 Reports are swirling of yet more delay to the latest review of Egypt’s IMF deal, the central bank is preparing to meet in a pressurised market environment and speculation about a sovereign default
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Aug. 23) August’s batch of PMIs for the region showed that activity in non-oil private sectors in the Gulf eased, but that activity remained strong. In contrast, Egypt’s PMI remained below the 50-mark and the... 5th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI: another hawkish hold, rate cuts still some way off The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.75%, and while our baseline forecast is that the tightening cycle is now over, the BoI’s hawkish comments support our view that... 4th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAMA drawdown, Saudi real estate, Egypt industry plans The drop in the Saudi central bank’s foreign assets to a 14-year low in July caused some concern this week, but we suspect this reflects funds being recycled to the Public Investment Fund rather than... 31st August 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s public finances stronger than they seem On the face of it, Morrocco’s public finances are starting to look alarming. The budget deficit has widened and the public debt-to-GDP ratio has jumped by over 10%-pts in less than three years. But a... 30th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think EMEA equities will continue to be a mixed bag Equities in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) have returned little in US$ terms so far this year. While they may fare better next year, we doubt they’ll outperform the wider emerging equity... 29th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly BRICS Summit, Morocco’s policymaking Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt were among six countries to be invited to join the BRICS bloc, which could solidify the shift in their geopolitical alignment towards a China-led bloc . This could... 24th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Oil output cuts are driving a sharp slowdown in economic growth across the Gulf. The hit to volumes will more than offset the rebound in oil prices but, for now at least, fiscal policy is being kept... 21st August 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s fiscal position, destination Dubai, Gulf inflation Egypt’s government debt-to-GDP ratio jumped to 96% in FY2022/23, one of the largest ratios in the emerging world, but there remain reasons to think that the government will be able to avoid a... 17th August 2023 · 6 mins read
