Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly How will the Israel-Gaza conflict affect the rest of MENA? The outbreak of conflict between Hamas and Israel this week has not yet spilled over into the wider Middle East and North Africa. But the situation is in flux and, if Iran were to be pulled into the... 12th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Energy Update Middle East instability threatens regional LNG exports The conflict between Hamas and Israel will negatively affect Israel’s natural gas exports. However, the bigger concern for global natural gas prices is the risk of the conflict spreading. In view of... 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fresh look at Egypt’s external position Despite a marked improvement in Egypt’s current account deficit, the pound’s de-facto peg is deterring critical capital inflows and adding to concerns over large external financing needs. A fresh... 10th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep. 2023) Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up from 37.4% y/y in August to a fresh multi-decade high of 38.0% y/y in September but we think that, even with another devaluation of the pound on the horizon... 10th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily War in Israel & Gaza adds to market uncertainty The latest war between Hamas and Israel comes at a tricky juncture for global markets, and could easily increase volatility further. At this point, we think there are three key considerations around... 9th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Oil market implications of Hamas-Israel conflict First and foremost, the renewed fighting between Hamas and Israel since the weekend is a humanitarian tragedy. In this note, we discuss three specific risks to regional oil supply going forward. The... 9th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Israel-Gaza conflict – Assessing macro and market risks 1696856400 The attack by Hamas militants on Israel, and the Netanyahu government’s declaration of war, brings renewed turmoil to the Middle East, threatening regional political and economic stability.
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on the Israel-Gaza conflict The attack by Hamas on Israel on Saturday has led to widespread casualties and deaths, and the declaration of war by Israel’s prime minister. From an economic perspective, the experience from the 2014... 9th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt election and UAE swap line, OPEC+, Saudi labour Egypt’s upcoming election in December has led to policy paralysis, particularly around the exchange rate. The currency swap line opened with the UAE this week appears aimed at bolstering resources to... 5th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Tectonic shifts in the Saudi labour market Saudi Arabia’s labour market has strengthened markedly in its post-pandemic recovery and the headline figures mask a dramatic shift in the size and composition of the labour force. In particular... 4th October 2023 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Sep. 23) The September release of PMIs for the Middle East and North Africa showed that activity in non-oil private sectors in the Gulf economies remained strong up at the end of Q3, and this is likely to... 3rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook “Higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness We think that the now popular assumption that interest rates will be held “higher for longer” will prove incorrect as economic growth disappoints and price pressures recede. While recessions have not... 3rd October 2023 · 46 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi pre-budget statement maintains loose fiscal stance Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-Budget statement reaffirmed the government’s commitment to sustaining its loose fiscal stance, with the government now projecting budget deficits all the way out to 2026. That... 2nd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt election, Dubai debts, CE Spotlight The confirmation that Egypt’s presidential election has been moved forward to December is likely to keep the policy shift toward economic orthodoxy on pause for the time being. Our best guess now is... 28th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 23) After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial vulnerabilities lurking in a handful of EMs Financial risks generally look quite low in most major EMs as current account deficits have narrowed this year and banking sectors remain in strong shape. But there are some areas of weakness... 26th September 2023 · 6 mins read
