Commodities Update Saudi comments point to lower oil prices The publication of OPEC’s monthly oil market report today has been overshadowed by two comments from Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi. First, Mr al-Naimi confirmed that Saudi output could be increased... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Farewell to the euro The euro-zone is slipping into a recession which we expect to be deep and prolonged and to result in the break-up of the single currency area. This will be a major drag on other European economies... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation edged up slightly in December as a rise in core inflation (non-food prices) helped to offset a drop in food inflation. 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF will need to address Egypt's external funding problems The Egyptian government’s decision to resume negotiations with the IMF is good news. The proposed $3 billion facility would help plug a gaping hole in the budget. But it would not be sufficient to... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran crisis could keep most Gulf markets subdued in 2012 At first glance, the Gulf’s lack of trade links with Iran means that international sanctions will have little impact on most of the oil-rich region’s economies. Indeed, Iran’s threat to block the... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) The pick-up in Egypt’s headline inflation in December has increased the likelihood of another rate hike when the central bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) meets in February. 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil-importers will have no room for fiscal manoeuvre in 2012 The increase in the costs of food and fuel subsidies, and public sector salaries, has left most oil-importers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with no room to counteract the impact of a... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Dec.) December’s PMI data show that the UAE’s non-oil private sector continued to slow on the back of weaker external demand. Moreover, the data highlight the UAE’s vulnerability to conditions in the global... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia HSBC/Markit PMI (Dec.) December’s PMI data show that growth eased in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector on the back of softer domestic demand. Meanwhile, businesses continue to face squeezed profit margins in spite of... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update GCC summit reveals lack of unity on economic policy Given the political turmoil in the Arab world and growing concerns of a conflict with Iran, it is unsurprising that politics took centre stage at the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) 32nd Summit this... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Clouds gather over North Africa Successful elections in Tunisia and Morocco, and initially in Egypt, have been overshadowed by a marked deterioration in economic conditions in North Africa. Indeed, Egypt is at a growing risk of a... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s GDP recovers but challenging times ahead Today’s reports that Egypt’s GDP grew by 0.5% y/y in the third quarter suggest that the economy has now recovered most of the initial losses in output brought about by the social unrest. However... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Our first thoughts on Saudi Arabia’s ministerial reshuffle Yesterday’s ministerial reshuffle in Saudi Arabia reflects the fact that previous administrations have fallen well short of the targets for growth and employment set out in the recent National... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The GCC’s fiscal plans may prove unsustainable This year’s fiscal stimulus packages in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have increased the risk of a spending squeeze in the next 10 to 20 years. Admittedly, enormous foreign currency... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai not yet out of the woods Despite growing concerns, we think that Dubai’s government-related entities (GREs) should be able to service the $3.8 billion in bonds that mature next year. Instead, the more pressing issue is the on... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: teetering on the edge of a full-blown economic crisis The ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces’ (SCAF) dithering over securing external financial assistance has left Egypt teetering on the edge of a full-blown economic crisis. The central bank’s... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
