Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Jun.) The escalation in the euro-zone crisis and recent falls in the oil price have weighed heavily on the Arab region’s equity markets over the past month. Indeed, even if Dubai and Qatar are upgraded to... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks in the Gulf are well placed to weather the storm One of the main channels through which the euro-zone debt crisis could affect the oil-rich Gulf economies is via a drop in foreign capital inflows due to heightened global risk aversion. In particular... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall further as euro-zone crisis deepens Headline inflation has dropped this year in most major economies and is likely to come down further as global growth falters, the euro-zone crisis deepens and commodity prices continue to fall. We... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt inflation down, but little chance of rate cut The fall in Egyptian inflation to a seven-month low in May is good news but does not provide sufficient grounds for the central bank to cut its benchmark interest rate on Thursday. 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Euro crisis clouds the outlook The combination of a deep recession in the euro-zone and the Arab world’s own political turmoil will act as a drag on the region’s economies in the near term. The North African countries are likely to... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will troubles in the euro-zone affect the Arab region? The primary channels through which a recession in the euro-zone will impact the Arab region are a deterioration in world trade, lower remittances, a drop in capital flows and falls in commodity prices... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s economy disappoints in Q1 The slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s annual GDP growth rate from a 6.6% y/y in Q4 2011 to 5.9% y/y in Q1 2012 suggests that last year’s record performance in the non-oil sector is unsustainable. 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Arabia’s economy is set to slow this year Our new Saudi Arabian whole-economy activity proxy suggests that GDP grew by around 7% y/y in the first quarter of this year, maintaining the record pace of growth in 2011. However, the combination of... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s elections add to vulnerabilities Early results from the first round of Egypt’s presidential election appear to have polarised society, pitting Islamists against secularists, and revolutionaries against the old guard. The outcome... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: political uncertainty set to push economy to the brink The results of the 1st round of presidential elections in Egypt could prolong the political uncertainty that has gripped the country since the revolution, which will increase the near-term risk of a... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Good news in Tunisia will probably not last The pick-up in Tunisia’s annual GDP growth rate from a of 0.4% y/y in Q4 2011 to an impressive of 4.8% y/y in Q1 2012 is flattered by base effects stemming from the collapse in output this time last... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Egypt’s presidential elections Today marks the first day in Egypt’s presidential elections with the opinion polls and expatriate votes showing contradictory results. Regardless of who wins, two outstanding issues remain from an... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan turns to the IMF and Saudi Arabia for funding The soaring cost of energy subsidies has led the Jordanian government to turn to the IMF and Saudi Arabia for $5 billion in external financial assistance. We think that given Jordan’s geopolitical... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economy disappoints in Q1 The pick-up in Egypt’s GDP growth from 0.4% y/y in Q4 to 5.2% y/y in Q1 was flattered by favourable base effects. Indeed, on a seasonally adjusted basis, we estimate that output contracted by 1.4% q/q... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How has Egypt’s economy shaped up in Q1? Monthly activity data suggest that the Egyptian economy may have grown by up to 10% y/y in Q1. But this will have been helped by favourable base effects, given the almost 5% y/y contraction in output... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Time running out for Egypt to secure IMF deal Recent comments from Egypt’s Finance Minister suggest that the country could receive help from the IMF next month. But with the external environment deteriorating sharply over the past few weeks... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
